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  1. tommcginnis

    Why Traders Lose

    That (watering down) is what also dilutes losses, right? And smooths returns so management can see their variance shrink against the market? So, two sides of the same coin, which in a bull market makes the manager look like a schmuck, and in a plunging market, makes 'em look like a friggin'...
  2. tommcginnis

    Why Traders Lose

    The current U.S.) bull market is an exception to an old and well-heeled rule (re: diversification), as this bull has taken up a lesser amount of equities (but to enormous heights). *Unfortunately*, this will correct over the next generation, and "Diversification" will become the new thing.
  3. tommcginnis

    Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES

    Wilder's ADX and DMI go back to the early 70s, are justifiably popular, and tradovate has 'em. "Just look under indicators, it is just in the main list, 6 from the bottom..." from Andrew S. -- it's listed as Average Directional Indicator, and you may then find a separate listing for Directional...
  4. tommcginnis

    Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES

    Have you ever heard of God's Helicopter?? https://storiesforpreaching.com/i-sent-you-a-rowboat/ The moral: if you turn down enough exits, you's gonna drown. BUT! If you liked the ATR(6), then consider the ADX/DMI±(12;12) for signals rather than that swamp posted here...
  5. tommcginnis

    Kim Klaiman's Steady Options

    Sometimes, the cards ain't worth it to have, if you don't lay 'em down.
  6. tommcginnis

    Repair Strategy for NFLX Short Put

    So *again* I remind, that if you get stabbed by a position and chose to 'work it out' instead of exiting immediately, any "relief" felt is *premature* -- YOUR ASS is still hanging in the wind: exposure is *still* there, and PERHAPS is undiminished. NFLX went from ~$400 ↓ to $340 overnight, to...
  7. tommcginnis

    Kim Klaiman's Steady Options

    In a free market, there would be no pressure for you to pursue this business relationship. Oh, wait! This IS a free market.:rolleyes:
  8. tommcginnis

    Kim Klaiman's Steady Options

    ET of late has reverted to a hive of BSD wannabees, who rip others' trades/trading, but don't actually post *content* themselves. There are half-a-dozen exceptions, of which Robert Morse and Kim Klaiman are two. I am not sure, however, how long either of them (or any of us) will care to have...
  9. tommcginnis

    Malicious trolling and stalking

    And YOU, CLOWN, can't correctly quote a butterfly, instead feeling the need to inject your special brand of *wrong* into the discussion. :rolleyes: WTH? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-butterflies-worthless.323072/#post-4691617 Baron, it's time to step up. Shit-slingers can find a...
  10. tommcginnis

    Is This What ET Has Become?

    It's deja vu all over again. (I think this exact thread was created 6-7 months ago, including an appearance by Baron, and a Springsteen reference from V-man. Is this just me?) Assisting someone who won't help themselves only assists them in going broke. It's a hard, but not an impossible, path...
  11. tommcginnis

    Relation between delta and SD

    Let's remember that IV is derived from the option market, not the other way around. We all use IV to develop other numbers (like "expected move") but we have to remember what exogenous to our set-ups and what's *endogenous*, or we'll end up in some great logical difficulties. So, "IV" does not...
  12. tommcginnis

    Dissertation research

    Sounds fun. :)
  13. tommcginnis

    Repair Strategy for NFLX Short Put

    OKAY!!! SO!!!! F'in' NFLX has breached $370 (to the downside) again. The $390 put (now a week away) has climbed from $16?? to $24. ("You Bastards!") That's the bad news. The good news is that that $395/05 call spread has gone from nearly $2 to <50¢. I have not/won't run any numbers, but I'd...
  14. tommcginnis

    Relation between delta and SD

    If you look on the other side, you'll notice things are a lot more cozy between the declared delta and the P(ITM). (Like, nearly exact.) Why would the puts be adhering to a Normal-ish distribution, and the calls seemingly so stingy? Or is it that the market does not "believe" that the...
  15. tommcginnis

    Are butterflies worthless?

    Whether an option pattern (including a butterfly) is a debit or a credit depends only on it's net impact to the account. It is not dependent on a name. Ferchrisake. Where the underlying market is relative to a option pattern has nothing to do with what that option pattern is called: where a...
  16. tommcginnis

    Are butterflies worthless?

    A butterfly is a bearish spread and a bullish spread (of the same width) that share a (middle) strike. As the $5-wide 2795/2800 and 2800/2805. A call butterfly is all calls. A put butterfly is all puts. An iron butterfly is puts on bottom, calls on top. That's it. End of story. Are they any...
  17. tommcginnis

    Question about adjusting basic spreads

    If you can run a reward-to-risk ratio, you can compute your answer. Sometimes we get lazy and think "Close enough!" But the answer you seek is right there in your numbers. Especially, in the position and portfolio greeks. FWIW, I have my own bit of laziness -- I have begun selling spreads with...
  18. tommcginnis

    Wait, is this actually how people scalp?

    I like how this thread has reclined to civility. :D
  19. tommcginnis

    Charting and trading the 1:1 crack spread

    Hey, I don't know from nothing but, I would note that when I woke IB's TWS this morning, it reminded me to change out the CL heading from August into September... that might help you right there. (To make sure both platforms are on the same target -- what you've described sounds like what you'd...
  20. tommcginnis

    OTC Market Depth via Interactive Brokers API?

    Would 'exchange=SMART' open any additional parameters? Have you checked the detail log, when it's reading request particulars? Something like "marketdepth=0" changed to "marketdepth=1"?? Post what you find out -- I'd like to know, too.
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