Search results

Mile Wilson says to sell any bounce, I believe that. I have some money in Signature Bank, better get there today to close my account, if the branch is still open-:( otherwise have to do online.

we are down as expected. First Republic got crashed 60%. 25b line is not enough.

not sure you can ever get anything back once it is in the hand of federal agency? like ask your tax refunds.

US banks sitting on unrealized losses of $620 billion https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/12/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

if you think 25b can solve the current bank run (or ones that are happening, like signature bank).

as usual, new facility credit line up to 25 billion, not sure it is for SVB only or for all other bank run combined

Signature Bank is closed.

that may not be correct, if svb put most of its assets into treasury securities as reported, there is no credit risk, so it is safe. the bank will pass the stress test with flying colours. personally took all cash out from online high yield savings accounts and built a tbill ladder with...

People won Noble Prize for it hence your assumption has bias. ach, gach(1.1), tarch. what a nightmare back in the days when studying, was all mystical words for me. if my memory is correct, stddev gives you a confidence interval. VIX is the product of one-month option of SPX 500.

no, SVB is not a VC firm but has lot of VC clients. They are safekeeping the deposits rather conservatively in treasuries. AFS/HTM allocation is wrong.

capitalism is always built on a massive Ponzi scheme.

liquid, yes. Not at a good price, that is the problem to begin with. Unless you can pay your employees in treasuries.

the sum of money is still there, cash doesn’t exist, most in long dated treasures. if you can’t repo the treasuries, no one will buy at face value.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-says-us-government-wont-bail-out-silicon-valley-bank.html no bail out. bank sector etfs will go down next week. even if svb can find a buyer, there are few more banks on the same boat.

Liquidity doesn’t matter at this moment, if you have cash in svb, take it out on Monday. What you need to consider is that at least half of your deposits will not be available anytime soon, that’s the risk. Unless the Feb can repo long dated treasuries at zero discount.

You can buy on but not all, there are a few maturity mismatch banks.

not yet, even if FDIC bails out SVB Monday, there are few other banks in the same maturity mismatch technical situation, unless FED can allow all of them to repo the treasury at no discount, and next Tuesday is the rate hike. will wait until 3700-3800 ish to buy.

buy kbw etf maybe, cherry picking, no. those analysts who spend their entire days watching banking stocks are not stupid, there is a reason why WAL etc are sold off more than JPM and BAC etc. but my educated guess is that you can pick CME or IBKR in this selloff wave, not cheap though.

depends on your account balance, big whales can afford average down.

3800 is in play because all the banks probably have to write off some SVB exposure.