Search results

  1. tommcginnis

    is this too much or just enough computer

    AND, when one of the machines develops an issue (memory, GPU, keyboard, freakin' mouse goes south...), you have a working spare up+running right there. As others note, trading itself really doesn't draw much computing umph -- it's all the windows and the regular (and unreasoning) increases in...
  2. tommcginnis

    The war on coal is making the world's biggest miners a lot richer

    Wow. Talk about "Fake News." "One reason for the output slide is the lack of coal-industry financing." "The pressure on the investment industry to reduce the amount of capital that we make available to the coal industry is increasing," said Nick Stansbury, a fund manager at Legal & General...
  3. tommcginnis

    Making 4% a year selling deep OTM covered calls?

    Cuz it's demonstrably true? "Money"? (One would figure that would be appropo.....) Reward/Risk for any major US Index over 20+ years? Gee! Golly! I recommend Google. Solves a LOT of Practiced Ignorance problems. They're working to get it into The White House as we speak.....:wtf: :D
  4. tommcginnis

    options training services

    The fact that they pretend to statistical knowledge with false statements that buggers the trades of those who know even less doesn't bother you? There are plenty of tt threads out there, and I don't mean to hijack this thread to be one of those, but the misuse of VERY important tems/concepts...
  5. tommcginnis

    i have one question for the options theoreticians here at et about the value of options.

    No. Option values can be cut in half (or doubled!) in 30 minutes flat. No. You can have the market move *towards* short call positions, and have the impact be a decrease in their value, because the vega/volatility loss exceeded the delta/climb. Nope. The original model (and the standard calc...
  6. tommcginnis

    options training services

    Except for Tom Preston and Mike (of "Mike & his Whiteboard"), none of them could pass a basic statistics course, and their widely-broadcast miss-uses of basic statistical terms hurts those who most need the help. That said, 1) I haven't watched much in years, but I seem to notice less grating...
  7. tommcginnis

    probability of in the money question

    Mr Gamma (who stands tallest when closest to the money) would highly disagree with you. :D
  8. tommcginnis

    probability of in the money question

    Good morning, all! There is some confusion about what the OP requested/stated, in evidence by the responses. So, a general clarifier: Linearity: VERY LITTLE in life is linear in toto. And this is *especially* true in anything connected to a Normal/logNormal distribution, as with...
  9. tommcginnis

    Earnings Implied move

    Thanks for the calculations, but I made no mistake in my post. The OP quoted a 1-day move. I quoted my experience with regard to a 365-day-year or 252-day-year, and take no position on straddle/strangle prices/methods.
  10. tommcginnis

    probability of in the money question

    Yes. Linear is your first, best assumption. But if the drop was event-driven, and any of the shock has not dispersed, then you will see the 15-delta be further from the money than the $5 from $100-->$95.... (And then there's *time*!!! If the shift *took*too*long* from $100-$95, that $85.50 may...
  11. tommcginnis

    Earnings Implied move

    Oh, we've risen ~1% since then: I'm back in my HappyLand....... :)
  12. tommcginnis

    after a number of trades from the same strategy, why my winners win? why my losers lose?

    I know: it's a busy afternoon and all but, he specified that the numbers were arbitrary chosen, and (we all) infer that n=1000 is sufficient to get a lot done. But let me oh so gently point out that n|fail = 400 is 150% of n|success = 600, and that ain't no random in a reasonable universe. :D
  13. tommcginnis

    NEW CTA: Discussion on Back-Office and FCM Choices

    Where do you want to go? If you want to go fewer/larger, then appearing "amateurish" could bottleneck you. If you wanted to go more-if-lowerAUM clients, IB has a lot of ready features to assist, including a dandy whitebox/trading facet that others may not, allowing you act not only as OPM...
  14. tommcginnis

    Earnings Implied move

    An eyeballed mistake on my part: The traditional formula uses 1/365 for time, but in practice, I've seen (and used) 1/252, and *generally* gotten better results. The results here would be about 3.03 against your computed 2.60 -- a 20%+ difference. But that won't get anybody to 5.67..... But...
  15. tommcginnis

    Interactive Brokers: closed one leg and added new option - how to recognize it as strangle again?

    "Oh for the days of (the now-deprecated) 949.3d!!!" At any rate, there's no way to do what you wish done. (That was in fact done[!!!], in 949.3d....) These days, the closest you can come is to write the combo line, use the NOTES column, and annotate your way to Happyville. This will keep your...
  16. tommcginnis

    Earnings Implied move

    (In anticipation of your figuring it out, I'm going to write:.......) Congratulations! on figuring it out. :wtf::rolleyes: :D :thumbsup::thumbsup:
  17. tommcginnis

    after a number of trades from the same strategy, why my winners win? why my losers lose?

    1) You are placing deterministic positions on a non-deterministic, probability-driven, "stochastic" process. 2) The success/failure of those positions will be subject to the same non-deterministic, probability-driven, "stochastic" process's distribution/behavior. [Not asked for, but probably...
  18. tommcginnis

    options training services

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/members/kim-klaiman.321924/ is behind steady options -- -- ET site sponsor -- solid contributor (actually, considering the BS he sometimes receives [for solid posts], he's an amazingly gracious guy) -- posts material to ET, seeking-α, etc. -- pretty good site (in...
  19. tommcginnis

    black scholes model pricing vs real life pricing

    Until the last 48-60 hours, BSM works quite well at presenting "fair" MID prices. (FWIW, the various Binomial models were answers to BSM short-time problems.) (FWIW, my recollection is that the original JPE articles used a 365 day throughout -- I have found 252 to be an improvement. As well...
  20. tommcginnis

    NVDA Iron condor

    Wednesday at 1400hrs, the FED OMC will release a statement containing the phrase, "...in our forthcoming US dollar/cryptocurrency trading facility." What will you do?
Back
Top