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Sweet. I love risk free $$$ :D

Are you short or do you own puts?

You mean the huge 0.3% rally of the JPY against USD?

Yea you gotta start with some way of getting an insight. I plan on travelling AU/NZ hopefully next year. And I will try to take careful note of that the "vacation impression" is nothing compared to actually living there. It's just a start and tip of the iceberg.

No disconnects for me. Smooth like always.

You will only find out if a country is "nice" or not if you live there. Rent an apartment/house, buy furniture, buy services, employ people etc. See how you get around there paying your bills, trying to get customer service, trying to get products/services you're used to from back home. You...

JPY looking really lazy amidst DAX down 3% and ES down 1.15%.

One thing to watch over the next couple days is USDJPY and EURJPY. Doesn't look like panic to me yet. 0.25% and 0.45% down respectively.

Can always become more oversold :D

You didn't understand what I wrote did you?

hmmmm by the way: Interesting that the IYR (REIT ETF) is barely budging today.

I'm using the statistical bias that the underlying longer term-trend has a higher probability of staying in tact than the short term trend. It's not predicting, it's doing what worked historically with p > 0.5.

http://etf.seekingalpha.com/article/13679 Good luck :)

Earnings Yield vs IRate delta was -3% in 2000. Its +4% now. Little difference. Of course, starting today rates could go up 2% tomorrow and earnings could implode next couple of quarters, but I prefer not to anticipate and rather react once it materializes.

I don't have any knowledge. I just do what historically worked based on statistical evidence: buy/sell short term corrections within an underlying longer-term trend. This worked in my backtesting and that's what I trade. I was never able to make money putting my finger in the wind and...

Not predicting a market move, dip buying is about using the current underlying trend in your favor, not about predicting. I prefer not to fight the market.

Ah so now the market will sink for good now. All the other 1/2/5% dips were not "it". But this one is. I am not predicting anything, I just wonder why you are always so sure every dip is "the mother of all dips". You said the same thing about the 10 last dips. Liquidity contraction...

If I ever learned one thing is that you won't consistently make money trying to predict and outguess the markets. If you're too anticipatory you're shooting yourself in the foot.

If everybody is so leveraged up long to the brim, then why are we only up 7% YTD I wonder? and like 10% annually over the last 5 years :confused: