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Well, they've been doing this sorta thing for 20 years now, basically... Would you say that it's been a successful strategy?

Aye, why anyone would keep their money in a US money mkt fund is beyond me...

What do you propose they do instead?

If you want to understand this stuff better, seek ye the series of papers titled "Understanding the Yield Curve" by Antti Ilmanen...

Thursday is good and so is Monday. I can also recommend Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday could work as well. Whatever you do, avoid Saturday and Sunday, as those are known to be difficult days for trading.

I don't have to prove anything. Various quantities implied from options prices are risk-neutral by construction.

Because at any given moment in time there's likely no such thing as a par 10y German bond. For example, the current 10y benchmark is the Aug 24 bund. As you can see, it's more like a 9y 10mo bond, rather than a 10y bond. In order to calculate the 10y par yield from the specific issue yields...

These implied probabilities are risk-neutral. They are not "true" probabilities, but they're the best you can get.

Click on "Term structure of interest rates in the debt securities market - estimated values", then "Listed Federal securities". In there, you will find tables that should give you what you're looking for.

I have provided the link above.

There's no single result, as there will be multiple councils reporting at different times. Watch North Lanarkshire for a potential indication of which way the wind is blowing. By the time you get the final result, the move is likely to be done.

That's some good sh1t right here...

I don't really like cats myself, tbh... Looks like a lose-lose situation here, methinks.

Cats is cool w/me...

Well, look at it this way... How is rewarding cat owners at the expense of those other poor catless souls any different/worse than what already happens on a pretty much everyday basis? For example, if I have a mortgage, I can pay less tax; if I live in West Virginia, I can pay a lot less for...

Cats, unfortunately, don't make good collateral and the cat mkt isn't that liquid...

Sure, there's always a risk of one sort of intervention or another, but I don't know how to formulate a clear bet that excludes such effects. Up to you, if you prefer a different format...

Great... Given we've looked at a few economic indicators, we should choose one that's reasonably clear cut. I propose average real GDP measured over a few quarters. We can either define the bet as the odds of the number being higher than some X or as a simple digital, e.g. I win/lose if the...

Shall we see how it plays out? I hesitate to suggest this, given our history on such subjects, but shall we have a friendly wager?

Why anybody would want to listen to Dick Bove is beyond me...