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  1. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    To be sure, we're talking about German bonds here... Germany's social expenditure as %age of GDP has been going down steadily since the crisis, in contrast to the majority of other countries across the world.
  2. M

    June '15 ZB

    Aye, there have been all sorts of shenanigans in the roll and, more generally, in that area of the curve.
  3. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Well, basically, it's a little bit of all of those things. With bonds, yes, you might buy a zero-coupon bond at 110 and get 100 at redemption (doesn't necessarily mean you lose money, since, in the meantime, you might be able to fund the bond at an even more negative rate or you might have...
  4. M

    Bullish on Nikkei?

    Make sure you buy the quanto version...
  5. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Of course... My "anonymous internet people" strategy has been delivering stupendous returns for investors for 20 years. And no, don't believe you about laughing at CNBC fans. Maybe a while back, when you still had your sense of humour, but clearly not now.
  6. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Hmmmm, there appears to be very scant understanding of bonds here...
  7. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Thanks to your inspiration, mate, I am now making money hand over fist on this ongoing bund squeeze... German yield now negative all the way to 7y. Yeeehaw!
  8. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Hell, no, bruv... I iz innit to winnit!
  9. M

    For the first time, you’ll will have to pay Germany to own its 5-year bund

    Whoa!!! And here I thought this was a trading forum... Was I mistaken?
  10. M

    Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens

    Yes, agreed and I don't have the answers either... I do think, though, that there comes a point where integration through "perma-crisis", a la Jean Monnet, starts to become more costly than having the union in the first place. Oh, good lord, I couldn't possibly disagree more with a statement...
  11. M

    Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens

    Yes, and I am not referring to Greece here... The Eurozone has suffered through one sh1tstorm after another. Isn't it rather telling that, since the original Eurogeddon crisis, we've had pretty much ongoing mini-crises continuously in Europe and relative stability elsewhere? Isn't there a...
  12. M

    If The Fed Continues This, "There Won't Be Any Active Managers Left In 5 Years"

    I thought there's all sorts of evidence that active managers are generally quite sh1t. Good riddance, then, no?
  13. M

    Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens

    Yes, my point is precisely that, for Europe, it's an unfortunate combination of: a) not being prepared for the sh1tstorm properly when/if it happens; and b) the sh1tstorm being more likely because of loose integration. And yes, that's how the Europeans go about doing things, but I think it's...
  14. M

    Futures&Index Arbitrage - free lunch??

    To imagine that you can implement any "cash-and-carry"-style strategies when your broker's market for financing is 300bps wide is rather, how to say, misguided?
  15. M

    Bull Call Spread Max Value BEFORE Exp

    Well, you could do some fancy schmancy stuff to, effectively, take some money off the table. But, ultimately, in case of a call spread, selling at least some of the position is the only proper way to do it. There is one thing I occasionally like to do, which lets me feel good about the position...
  16. M

    Bull Call Spread Max Value BEFORE Exp

    Yeah, so let's put it this way... The value of this call spread will "asymptotically" approach 15 as it gets closer to expiry and/or the underlying goes unequivocally and irreversibly through the upper strike. Yeah, precisely, with the risk, obviously, that the stock in question could fall...
  17. M

    Futures&Index Arbitrage - free lunch??

    The sign does make a difference. You've sold the index for cash. You're lending cash at the rate given on the right-hand side, which means you're receiving a rate of -2.4% on your cash (that's a function of Swiss money mkt rates being negative, as well as the ridiculously wide mkt from your...
  18. M

    Bull Call Spread Max Value BEFORE Exp

    Well, the time value of the short call is going to go down, but so will the time value of the long call. To illustrate, lemme ask you a simple question Let's say the stock is at $132 a week before expiry... I offer you the call spread for 15. Would you buy? What about 1 day before? Where...
  19. M

    Futures&Index Arbitrage - free lunch??

    Sure, let's assume zero for the futures. On the index, I think you're a wee little bit off. Firstly, the interest is not 2.40%, it's -2.40%. Secondly, as I am sure you're aware, there's a small matter of a dividend, which is projected to be worth arnd 108.5 index points in March (index goes...
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