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"Treasury Bond Basis" isn't about STIRs, it's about bond futures. The point is that there's a whole class of "statistical"-ish techniques/models that can be applied to a given futures strip, if you suspect that there is an embedded underlying structure imposed by fundamental economic forces. I...

Well, it's all part and parcel of the same underlying problem, innit? The Japanese population doesn't want to change and Japanese politics reflect that. This applies to everything: demographics, protectionism, immigration, women in the workforce, government debt, etc etc etc. Like volpunter...

Ah, this is a brilliant opportunity for me to use Tsing's line from a post above... "... - how can you possibly know this until you try?" BTW, the above is a mighty arrogant thing to say, don't you think? I am more inclined to think that the real issue is that the Westerners that talk about...

No, it's not because I didn't like their comments. It's because many of their comments that I've seen in the past contained glaring inaccuracies and factual errors (aka lies). Therefore, in my view, they don't have any credibility. This means that going through their commentary again to...

I am posing a hypothetical question... Suppose I told you that Japan is a country where, as things currently stand, required structural reforms cannot realistically happen. Whether it's because they are politically not feasible or because they contradict some deep-seated cultural norms or some...

Well, I would be shocked if you'd do any different. Why waste time going through the details of a story whose author has lied to you numerous times in the past? It would be, erm, unproductive...

Koizumi, eh? Structural reform, eh? How are things going with Japan Post? Again, nobody disagrees with you about the structural reform. I certainly would never say that reforms are not worthy of tackling. Moreover, Abenomics is actually enjoying some modest successes on that front (e.g. the...

Listen, man, I could go through this article bit by bit, but, honestly, I lack the will to do it. It's just too stupid and there are just too many glaring inconsistencies, inaccuracies and contradictions. Like I said before, I don't understand why anyone attaches any value to what HeroZedge...

No, I am referring to you existing in some magical parallel universe... One where people disagree with you about the need for structural reforms (I don't). In this same universe said structural reforms are easy, quick and painless and everyone in Japan, realizing this amazing truth overnight...

Hahaha, ZeroHedge strikes again! Amazing!

Oh good lord, not this crap again...

"Positive" is such a relative term, don't you think? One person's "positive" is another person's, you know... You keep on keepin' on! I enjoy it, as well...

Yep, I don't really understand what his beef is...

You can google yourself, but here's something: http://www.spiderfinancial.com/support/documentation/numxl/white-paper/financial-markets/wti-futures-curve-analysis-with-pca-part-1

Well, you'd hardly expect every single piece of data to exceed expectations, would you? Even in the case of Abenomics being an unmitigated success... As to me posting positive releases, I would rather refrain from trying to conclude anything from every single individual piece of data that...

I wonder why you're only commenting on the data which prints below consensus or points to economic underperformance? Much like the gentleman whose article you posted originally...

Well, let's leave liquidity out of it. Nobody knows how to deal with it properly, so it's a proper "unknown unknown". As to the the changing volatility, that's precisely what all these factor models are about.

I find that Marty is being somewhat disingenuous, at least in some of the things he has said. So I am not sure I like the article all that much. Since when is real per capita GDP used as the most accurate measure of real income? What happened to all the things like wages and salaries and all...

Correct, a bond has value as collateral... You can't practically use cash under your mattress (or in a vault or in a truck or whatever) in the same manner. Moreover, new regulation designed to improve the stability of funding of the banking system also means that, if you're, say, a large...

There is a language... There are all sorts of factor models that can be generally applied to any given futures strip, e.g. PCA and its variants. There also more specific term structure models that can be used if you're looking at rates.