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The lockdown worked both ways. Traffic fatalities went way down, for example. Ok, if you ignore the antibody tests and assume that every single NYC resident was infected – which is overoptimistic and unlikely, but I'll play along with you – that gives us a fatality rate of 0.276% (as of today...

Turveyd, you've cited this 0.1% fatality rate at least three times in this thread. You're way off base. The best estimate of the fatality rate in New York City as of May 1 is 1.4%. Here's how that was calculated: Actual recovered cases: 1,671,351 (10 times the number of confirmed cases) as of...

Algo_Design_Kid, it seems to me that your channel lines should be drawn parallel on the log chart. Otherwise, there's not much reason to use a log chart.

Interesting. In 1983 I had a ruptured (gangrenous) appendix... emergency surgery, a week in the hospital... total bill was just under $4,000. It seemed like a huge figure at the time, but it was "only" about 15% of my annual salary as an entry-level engineer in 1983, whereas your bill would...

Actually, one of the original Turtles did write such a book: http://www.amazon.com/Way-Turtle-Methods-Ordinary-Legendary/dp/007148664X

Anyone remember Cramer's old "Buzz Beat" columns, about a fictitious hedge fund run by Buzz Gould and Batch Hammer? He described how these momentum operators would run up the price of their existing holdings at the end of every month by buying more shares at wildly inflated prices. As long as...

I disagree with the statement that you *must* do out-of-sample backtesting - not that it will hurt. From hard-earned experience, here is my own advice: - Use a simple set of trading rules (limited number of parameters). - Apply these rules to enough historic data that you generate...

The major stock index of the second largest economy in the world has been declining for 20 years. This is not an outlier.

If any of you are going to Jurrien Timmer's "State of the Market" presentation today at 1:30pm, perhaps I'll run into you there. Diode

Niederhoffer, in Education of a Speculator.

It's fairly well known that trend-following works in most markets... with the notable exception of equities (and equity indexes). Keith Fitschen, developer of the trend-following system Aberration, has done some interesting studies that show that equities are best traded counter-trend on a...

Chagi, The leverage is available, but no one is forcing you to use it. For example, the current minimum margin (performance bond) for trading one ES contract is $3938. The face value of that contract as of the moment I'm posting this is $60287.50 (1205.75 x 50). So, you could fund your...

Summarizing your excellent post: SURVIVOR BIAS.

So using the same logic, who exactly are you, that you are willing to take the time to write all these negative posts about this firm? One of Andrew's competitors?

I attended GlobalFX's original seminar back when they launched (Sept 2003), and a later seminar at their trading room at 11 Broadway. Spent a fair amount of time with their platform remotely, trading a demo account. I was interested in GlobalFX because I'm undercapitalized and it was an...

I imagine you have no clocks or calendars on your office walls, no papers on your desk - actually, who needs a desk? - no TV to follow news... and you hit ALT-TAB real often.

Oops... just went back and re-read the beginning of this thread. If Mr Engineer has access to the account statements, he presumably can see withdrawals of funds and therefore could assign the correct interpretation to those trades. My bad. Sorry.

In the real world, positions are sometimes closed out simply because the owner of the account wants to take some money out to spend, or to invest elsewhere. It would seem to me that Mr Reverse Engineer is not going to be able to make sense of such trades.

I've voted Libertarian in every election since 1980. (For local offices where there is no Libertarian candidate running, I always vote for whoever is not endorsed by the Right to Life party.) I'm going to have to break ranks this year and vote for a Democrat for President, for what should be...

Scientist, You might want to brush up on your German history before you tell the family story next time. German hyperinflation occurred during the period July 1922 to November 1923. Hitler had nothing to do with it; he came to power ten years later.