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  1. tommcginnis

    China retaliation predictions?

    Very interesting question. In toto, I don't know -- no one could: it depends on what the Democrats will serve up. But right now, THE ENTIRE WORLD wants numbnuts to win, as it takes the U.S. out of every [global] game that there is. The British, Swedes, and Germans are all selling more arms...
  2. tommcginnis

    China retaliation predictions?

    Many supporting themes and sub-melodies being played here, but the founding ostinato is that TrumPidiot made the only dollars he made in the 80s-90s by executing pump&dumps, one after the other, until Wall Street figured out that he wasn't just taking them for a ride by accident but entirely by...
  3. tommcginnis

    The Day Traders Are Back, Now Playing With Options

    IB publishes audited proof all over its website. Other sources (Barrons, WSJ, Stockbroker.com) are cited all over the interwebs. Spend two or three days and read it all. They've got nothing to hide. https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/communiques/2019/2019-Q2-vol7.php...
  4. tommcginnis

    am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms

    Charles Darwin (1809–1882) said, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge." Can't possibly keep up with the bad theories, pseudo-science, and mutual masturbation going on in this thread, but here's the thing which *started* to be addressed early on, but has gotten lost...
  5. tommcginnis

    Can somebody explain to me how China is screwing us?

    I grant your points 101%, but I have to point out an irony, too: I was teaching econ through most of the financial crisis→Great Recession, and had to point out that the old saw of "What's good for GM is good for America!" was WAY no-longer true: instead, since about Y2000, GM's major...
  6. tommcginnis

    am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms

    You're trying to be an empiricist. Suppose you and I both have an opinion on market direction, but that these opinions are opposites, and that these opinions are based on two different biased readings of the very same data. One of us will have consistent problems in our trading results; the...
  7. tommcginnis

    Can somebody explain to me how China is screwing us?

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+debt+problem&t=ffsb&ia=web
  8. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=science+meme&t=ffsb&iax=images&ia=images
  9. tommcginnis

    Can somebody explain to me how China is screwing us?

    The headline is 'jobs' of course: you shouldn't be making things cheaper for us to buy, by using your cheap labor versus our more-expensive labor. We demand the unreality of $10 shoes AND a $20/hr domestic labor rate to make 'em. (And LOTS of $20/hr domestic workers, too!) But the real deal (as...
  10. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    We've breached 2830, hitting hard resistance. 0.30 on the CPI. Trade noise is out. Euro-dollars are distracted by Brit's economic goose. Time to buy the floor. Time to sell the no-raise Fed futures put. Time to buy the rumor. Time to buy the lack of selling into the Euro-close. ((Sell at 2850...
  11. tommcginnis

    Real estate Call/Put options

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_options_valuation It's basically Ye Ol' Brealey & Myers done up big. The cite has a sweet set of books and articles referenced. I read through a bunch of stuff and got a fine collection off of eBay for $Squat. BTW: Don't be distracted: the "real" here is not...
  12. tommcginnis

    The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

    Boyle, schmoyle! Stop confusing us with facts. :wtf: :D
  13. tommcginnis

    The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

    Alright, well, we can see the different sides forming up here... but I bet we'd all agree that the initial statement, The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To is a phenomenally STUPID one, right? I mean, "were never meant to"??? WTF? :confused...
  14. tommcginnis

    What Desktop Do I Needed To Run Simulation/Monte Carlo

    Back in the day, I used to run an electric utility model, in which rates, financials, operations/maintenance, and generation fleet, were all taken out 20-30 years. This was computed by a high speed 80386 CPU, WITH the 80387 math co-processor. Written to a *giant* floppy disk (a 20mb Bernoulli...
  15. tommcginnis

    Why covered call?

    I have never been able to figure out why "Selling Covered Calls on a Buy&Hold Portfolio" produces such acrimony and name-calling, but it does. As well, "Selling Puts On Stocks You Wish To Own" -- same thing: acrimony & name-calling. We are a curious species. o_O
  16. tommcginnis

    Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...

    DeadTrader -- why did the stuff work when it worked, and fail when it failed? What made the market move in ways that tweaked "indicators" followed, and then (without apparent warning) work in ways that matched a whole *new* set of indicators? What if you relied on a set-up (that seems to last...
  17. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    "Whatttttt!?!?!?" :wtf::confused::wtf::confused: I don't usually comment in these sorts of threads, but what are you smoking? (And, where can I get me some o' dat?") The market opened today ABOVE where you made you "Top!" call, where it has been nearly every day for the past fortnight. You...
  18. tommcginnis

    Gundlach baits the ninnies.....

    "Stocks are in a bear market." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/jeffrey-gundlach-sees-better-than-50percent-chance-new-tariffs-happen-further-hitting-stocks.html? Good Lord! He's either baiting the ninnies or he's a ninny himself. And how gutless is the "50% chance that new tariffs will happen"...
  19. tommcginnis

    Watch this guy build a trading bot

    I'm really busy so can't watch the whole 45 minute thing right now, but I got 5 minutes in and if the guy delivers on half of what he said, it's a great video. (I didn't want to like him at all -- that whole hair business {"Really?? Harry Potter want his hair tuft back"} put me off.) Anyway --...
  20. tommcginnis

    Machine Learning and Neural Networks

    Hell, I'm still waiting for the YouTube urls for the whole day, just to see if I came across as obnoxiously proselytizing as I might have. :confused:
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