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Right now this election is pretty close to a coin toss. Most of those who opine are giving their preference not their objective opinion. If I were making book I'd be happy to quote it 6 to 5 pick'em and fell comfortable taking in up to 15% more on one side before moving the line.

Not often Joe Louis is quoted on a trading site! For those unfamiliar with the quote he said it just before his knockout of Billy Conn in the 13th Round of their championship fight.

Only my wife can be right 85-90% of the time and even she can only do it when arguing with me. And, in her mind, it is 100% of the time!!!

Keep the simple fact that there is no cost to sit in mind all day, every day. And understand that no matter how tight you play this game, as long as you trade RTH in highly liquid instruments EVERY bet will be faded. No one can see that you are tight, tight, tight. You have no table image to...

He's probably going to try to move it to a Russian bank that, if mob owned, will use it as capital, never push it out of their vault and then rob whatever actual capital is left in the bank. That said, doing 8 to 15 is the most likely outcome.

Well, isn't that what we all have in common: That we were fresh at one time. Keep in mind it is only fish that lays around a while that stinks! Good luck, kid. You might want to get a bit of seasoning before you go so public ... but, hey, it's your life!

I have read enough of your posts to know that type of scalping is not your style. I also have confidence that if you say it's and advanced tactic that you understand and is solid that it is just that. I just can't get my head around needing to be right at least 70% of the time to break even...

Kid, I read the AB refresher article -- thanks for it. As much as I have learned from Al's work I have always had a problem with his small scalp / large stop approach. Do we suspect he trades 4 tick scalps with 8 tick stops? It seems unworkable to me. And thanks to all for their advice...

Thanks for your reply but I am seeking advice on CL not ES.

Should have made it clear my TF is 5 min. chart. in ES and prefer to stick with that in CL.

The PA in ES has been terrible leaving few trading opportunities. While I've lurked here from time to time (some good PA traders here) I'm not a CL trader. I tend to use tight stops in ES (often 6 ticks off what Al Brooks would call an H2 or L2) with a scalp target of 10 ticks leaving a...

The western industrialized nations are playing with fire. There is the story about the economist that was asked how bad a depression can get and his reply was "Have you read about the Dark Ages." Depressions that get deep enough can lead to massive wars, repression, total collapse of the...

Keynes implicit warning against fighting the tape or the Fed or the insanity is surely correct. That said, it is important to recognize the insanity and the degree to which it is off kilter. Then, when the trend changes, you will have the courage to wait and even wait again for confirmation...

Like ours it has not YET collapsed. The treadmill --borrowing and printing-- is a very difficult one to get off gracefully. There is little doubt in my mind that nasty, persistent inflation lies ahead of us and the potential for hyperinflation certainly exists.

What do you perceive the dollar -- going forward -- is depreciating against? What is the store of value in your mind? Say you believe we live in times that will soon turn strongly infationary and that "hard assets" will maintain their purchasing power while fiat currency will not it becomes...

Yeah ... no one wants the spigot closed.

I don't know about the last paragraph -- behavior modification but the rest of this post is EXACTLY where its at. Find the positive expectation and let it play out over the full sample -- not just in testing -- but in your trading. I'm not suggesting that if you are trading a methodology...

Must be 1.1 billion not million.

The "roll" in many of these instruments is the ultimate transaction cost. It is sickening how these talking heads leave this out of the equation. The resulting presentation then equals pure BS.

The kid may be a scum bag (what he supposedly did to the Argentinian friend), he may have had a lot of good luck in the process but to believe he is "just a college kid that got enormously lucky" is simply crazy. The "kid" has navigated many a minefield adroitly, built his fortune and may...