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I edited my post.

The problem with that is that you need the occasional huge home run for a system like this to even have a chance at being profitable. The home runs are the only defense against the constant in/out chopping that eats up your profits that occurs every so often. The only other alternative is to...

lol, what?

A really slow MA on a long timeframe. Open up a futures index chart and throw on a 300 period WMA. Color the bars based on slope. Awesome, right? Huge swings worth thousands on a single contract. Too bad you will get chopped out so often (a holy grail system can have losses; it just...

On what timeframe does this happen? I have plotted sales at the bid vs. sales at the ask and it really doesn't tell you what is going to happen, only what currently just happened. It ends up being very similar to if you just plotted a moving average. Up trends will be mostly green, down...

I've heard price follows order volume but I wasn't able to take anything from it looking at the DOM. Link to vid?

rofl vague nonsense. Is the view awesome from on top of your guru mountain? How much do the fortune cookie companies pay you for your wisdom? "gold is all around yet goes unnoticed by many!" Or, you could've contributed to this thread with something helpful and specific.

Well, I agree that you don't have to buy the bottom or sell the top. I'd be happy with just the middle third :D Of course, that requires entering after the first third, and the market can reverse at any point, so who knows if you're entering at the right point or if it's just gonna keep...

I agree it doesn't contradict. I'm saying the reason "trend trading" doesn't work is because just because price is in a "trend" doesn't mean it's anymore likely to keep going in that direction than to reverse. I was making those two statements to say that even if you could manage to define...

My trading has nothing to do with trend following because the trend cannot be defined (as per my example above) and even if it could be defined, there is nothing to suggest that just because it has been going up it will continue to do so after I enter. That was a long post but you really...

This makes sense. So "scalpers" are now basically just quick in and out traders, like swing trading but on a super short timeframe.

btw, having a trend following system that gets chopped out during choppy periods eventually leads to running two systems at once (one trend following, one mean reversion and/or counter trend) to try and take advantage of Parrondo's paradox, which also doesn't really work in trading. Please...

Trends are great after the fact. The first problem is defining a trend. Is it a series of HHs and HLs? Is it based on the slope of a MA? Is it based on time? The second problem is that just because a trend exists based on whatever definition you are using does not mean it is any...

Yeah, I have seen a lot of scalpers posting online about how they trade lots of 10 ES for a few ticks or whatever. I've never seen any proof, though.

Seems like we're back in that range.

How do you know when to get out? Seriously. What makes you say "I thought price was going to go up, but based on this current drawdown and price action, I now believe it is more likely to continue going down"? I assume you wouldn't exit a long position if you believed it was going to go...

Insightful post.

You must trade a lot to have math that gives you 9%. The fewest trades that could be is 11. One winner, 10 losers = 9% win rate. Actually, I guess that's not really that many. Nevermind. I was thinking it down from 9/100 and I was like whoa, 100 in a day, that's a lot!

Sure, unless price goes down cuz you've got an Enron or AMD.

Right. You are predicting that over time the price will do what you think it will more often than not. If I have a six sided die and instead of being numbered 1 through 6, it has one 1 and five 6s, if you were to roll that die 10 times I predict it would be mostly 6s.