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  1. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    Constant range bars? They eliminate chop in theory (if price is sitting there going horizontally, they don't print, which is nice) but the downside is that sometimes you get multiple bars printing at once which has its own negatives and trading difficulties. What are those dots above and...
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    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    One of Anek's followers? I've heard they can predict market direction successfully. It's also my understanding that they don't actually trade the way that Anek talked about in his big thread here. In other words, they don't jump into trends with any of that HH/HL crap, but instead call market...
  3. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I never claimed they did. I doubt I would find someone who is actually profitable and not trying to sell me something. I have a PM box full of ET gurus wanting to coach me for money or sell me their system. No thanks. Oh, I know. I'm aware that win rate isn't correlated with...
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    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I was looking at it more in the sense of: the market will eventually make a big move (in a random direction) and I'd like to be in it on the correct side when it does. But I see why what you said is also correct. I agree with the guy you are quoting who said that emotions drive...
  5. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I expect you "prices are not random" people are banking ridiculous amounts of money. Am I right?
  6. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I cannot predict direction. If I could, I would load up with massive positions in the direction that price was going to go. There would be no need for stops, or scaling in, or money management. Price may not be random, but when I try to predict direction I'm right about 50% of the time...
  7. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    To me, it's random. Every "rule" I've seen is wrong enough of the time that there's no edge, for me. I've spent a ridiculous amount of time testing stuff, writing indicators, going through all the motions. For the last year I haven't used indicators at all, but even so, all the PA and...
  8. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I didn't reenter right away. I entered whenever I felt like it, usually once or twice a day. Since price movement is random, it didn't matter when I reentered.
  9. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    Actually, yeah, you're right. It is equivalent to waiting for a 50 pip movement in one direction and then entering. Except I don't want to sit around waiting for that to happen nor can I write code to do that for me, so I just entered both directions and let it do its own thing on its own...
  10. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    Sure, if you close both positions at the same time, then yes, you are right. Anytime being long and short at the same time gets brought up on this forum, people are always like "ZOMG that's teh same thing as no positon at all!!!" If it was equivalent to no position at all, then the (net)...
  11. 1

    My losing, forward-tested Forex strategy (charts and equity curves) - let's fix it!

    I've been dicking around in an Oanda practice account for the last month or so trying to play around with some "catch big trend" strategies (which I still have no success with). The premise and rules for this one are easy, and are as follows: Premise: Direction cannot be predicted (except...
  12. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    Whoa, 7th post in over 2 years! :eek: Thanks. I'll look into that.
  13. 1

    A Jedi Trader's ES Journal

    i don't get how your DOM is showing like a $700 loss but your Excel sheet shows a gain for the day.
  14. 1

    "The only way to trade with Fibonaccis" journal

    getting closer. Somewhere between $4-5 per share gain right now.
  15. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    I know that it depends on the relative prices. I'm asking if it's safe to say that, generally speaking, as time goes on and price goes down below the strike price of an OTM call, the value of the option tends to go down as well. I don't know what that means. Free shareware calculator???
  16. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    Well yeah, but if price moves down and away from a call's strike price, wouldn't it tend to go down? Doesn't selling calls put time decay on your side anyway? I would assume that as time goes on, there is less chance that the stirke price will be met and therefore the price of the option would...
  17. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    Whoa you are right. But commissions would eat into that. So if I sell a July QQQ 60 covered call for $1.11, let's say price goes down to 50 and I decide that now I would rather sell my QQQ at 55 rather than at 60, so I want to get rid of that covered call. Is it likely that the original...
  18. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    So ITM options aren't automatically exercised at expiration? I thought I read that they were. So you can potentially keep your shares AND the premium even if it's ITM? :eek:
  19. 1

    if you're writing covered calls, do you always do a far away expiry?

    Say I own QQQ at $55 and I'm planning on selling it at $60. Since I'm planning on selling it at $60 I might as well write a covered call right? Ok. April 60 calls are selling for like $0.04 right now. So I'd make $4, which would be a net loss after comission. July 60 calls are going for...
  20. 1

    100% Winners - Is This Arbitrage Stuff For Real?

    Can you show me the math behind how that works? I don't know how sports betting works or what "win at [price]" means.
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