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  1. K

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    My approach is different from most in that I don't seek options that are under/over valued. I use spreads on broad based indexes and take advantage of the "typical" brownian motion of the markets, with the standard caveats about upside and downside movement. Knowing that sustained upside moves...
  2. K

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Yes, it is possible to make 20+% per annum - both expected and realized - using options. There are many methods to do this, however all that I am familiar with involve the same sort of edge available to poker/blackjack players. It's a small edge that must be repeated as often as possible...
  3. K

    $70,000 minimum wage at this private company...

    The plot thickens... http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-gravity-ceo-dan-price/
  4. K

    NYSE Kills ‘Land Mine’ Order Type Some Blame for August Mayhem

    Coming from the broker, the exchange never knows whether the order being presented is a freshly keyed order, or one being created as a result of a stop being hit. To them, it's just a limit or market order. It seems silly to me that IB would have a structure in place that tightly limits an...
  5. K

    NYSE Kills ‘Land Mine’ Order Type Some Blame for August Mayhem

    I'm sure that feature will be in the next software release.
  6. K

    Predicting Short Term Vs Long Term Moves

    I have no clue - in any timeframe whatsoever, where the market is going. That's why I trade options.
  7. K

    this is really a thing that people put their money in

    Every fundamental trader - even the great ones - has big losers once in a while. It's not a perception issue with oil right now. There really are hundreds of tankers and supertankers parked off the coast in the Gulf of Mexico with no place to unload. The other thing everyone got wrong was...
  8. K

    Emini S&P 500 Expiration?

    The other thing to remember is that futures - as derivatives - are simply proxies for something that is real. In this case, ES/SPX is a "purchasable" product that represents the 500 equities in the S&P and the futures contract is always tied to the S&P 500 value. These days, with about 3...
  9. K

    A trader faces 100k debt after shorting a penny stock and now starts a crowdfunding campaign

    This is the new paradigm. Society (and the gov't) are expected to forgive poor decisions. That student debt too much for ya... get it forgiven.
  10. K

    Heavy Selling in SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM on Friday Nov. 13

    We were up the day after the London bombings.
  11. K

    Income tax identity theft baffles IRS

    I think many people will also start getting in the habit of ensuring that they owe just a bit every tax year instead of getting a refund. Not enough to pay a penalty/interest, but definitely owe some. That way, if your identity gets hijacked the IRS is waiting on their money instead of the...
  12. K

    I told you so: Obama right and Europe wrong about way out of Great Recession

    It's downright scary how ignorant many politicians are when it comes to basic economics.
  13. K

    Hedge-fund prodigy takes a $300 million hit

    Only the losses make the news. You wouldn't see a report announcing that she had hit one outta the park and MADE the same amount.
  14. K

    The Uberization of Money

    Yes. Now the "income inequality" crowd is in the midst of their 15 minutes of agitation. And wait until someone takes a gander at the discrepancy between loan rates of minorities and non-minorities and the trend since 2007. The cycle will begin again, lest these evil banks continue to use...
  15. K

    The Mathematician who Cracked Wall Street

    This - to me - is certainly believable. I'm not sure what some of you guys define as "good trading"? Once you start pushing around 9 figures, it's hard to pop in and out the ES all day long, never mind the ELEVEN figures Simons has been running for decades. I stopped trading equities more...
  16. K

    The Mathematician who Cracked Wall Street

    Where's the part about "none of it being true" and all of the illegal stuff?
  17. K

    The Mathematician who Cracked Wall Street

    I'd like some elaboration here as well if we are to take any of this post seriously.
  18. K

    The Mathematician who Cracked Wall Street

    I've always held Jim Simons in the highest regard for his genius and incredible talent. In terms of the markets, his accomplishments should serve as inspiration to many that aspire to get to the next level. Renaissance charged 5 and 44 and eventually closed to new investors and Medallion has...
  19. K

    Subprime Auto Goes Full-Retard: Lender Sells $154 Million ABS Deal (no-credit buyers)

    I think that was a huge part of the runup leading to 2007. Technology allowed securitization and mixing of debt instruments into products that became more complicated. The selling organizations often wanted to juice the returns, so they added some risk with lower grade paper. The buyers found...
  20. K

    Subprime Auto Goes Full-Retard: Lender Sells $154 Million ABS Deal (no-credit buyers)

    Right. The bonds are complete crap...I wouldn't touch those with your money.
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