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What source did you use for your probability numbers?

But aren't the probabilities based on the options' IV rather than SV and therefore be forward-looking?

When a trade shows negative expectancy do you pass on it or take it and just manage it more closely?

Fee simple software sales are so 90's. It's all gone subscription now, especially in this market segment.

I'm a software professional and I've implemented a some "great ideas" for free for a few individuals. These were ideas that appeared to be (in my judgement) worthy of development and I thought I had a chance at riding the gravy train. My experience has been: Profitable manual traders are not...

Pay down your student loans.

Guys OP is gone.

The IV would have been high in anticipation of the earnings announcement on Monday 12/29, but yesterday 12/30 IV would already have collapsed. You must have been looking at end-of-day data.

I can't speak to that book specifically but usually when you're rolling up a call you're also rolling out in time. Even though the underlying is closer to the short call, theta has eaten away at the time value. If you roll up and out it can be frequently at about the same price (depending on...

I'm an engineer and was originally trained as a scientist. I can't imagine *not* measuring and analyzing things that are important. My main question to you is what if you stopped making money one day? How would you know what went wrong and what adjustments to make to correct the situation...

Win rates aren't important, only positive expectancy. Like I said, a coin toss entry with a SL=4 and a TP=2 will yield a 67% win rate but your expectancy is 0 or less. And what about trade costs like commissions? On 2 ticks you're giving away a significant portion of your profit.

Let's have some actual numbers. All this subjectivity is like talking to my daughter.

If you're only taking 2 ticks then you're basically trading in the noise and your entries are essentially random. If you set the SL at 4 ticks and the TP at 2 ticks you'll appear to have a win rate of about 67% just from a coin toss entry. Does your entry have an edge better than a coin toss?

99% of ForexFactory posts are by noobs and martingalers.

I ended up getting a Samsung Galaxy S4 this past weekend. So far I'm very happy with it. In fact, I'm quite impressed with the IB TWS Android version. I sold one of my positions this morning and bought another; I was surprised how easy it was on that little screen. Also, I found out that...

How about this from Interactive Brokers: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-03/sick-and-tired-being-frontrun-hfts-interactive-brokers-has-solution

Thanks for the info guys. I'm not really interested in a tablet right now so Nexus is out. To complicate matters (or simplify them maybe) I would really like to stay with Verizon Wireless for another year until my son is out of college. I noticed with VZ iPhones there's a monthly charge...

I'm looking into getting my first smart phone. I'm an engineer and engineers in the office seem to prefer the Samsung line of Android phones. But I have met a couple of engineers that use iPhones too. I hear that iPhones "just work" i.e. there's no futzing around, things are intuitive etc...

Yup, selling puts is exactly the same risk profile as buying stock. It depends on the broker but at IB for example you can sell puts, put on options spreads, etc in an IRA as long as the account is approved for it. Even then, selling calls is not allowed because it's theoretically unlimited risk.

There. Fixed that for ya. :D