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Let's see German retails sales once the "Kurzarbeit" schemes run out. The best is yet to come, as always conveniently AFTER the elections :cool:

If the dollar is in bad shape then why not short the dollar outright? Why use a proxy like gold that sometimes works at hedging dollar weakness and SOMETIMES doesn't. The US Dollar was cut in half 1983 - 1987, yet Gold only traded down to sideways with insane volatility.

The level of overall taxation (government tax revenues as a % of GDP) is comparably low in the US. I think around 8-9% points lower than in Europe. Plenty of room for tax hikes :cool:

GC is the Comex gold future. I'm trading that and the GDX Philly Gold Silver ETF. I understand there are dozens of individual gold stocks but I have been unable to build any quantitative edge on them. I tried, but couldn't find anything. Can't outsmart the gold bugs :)

Gold is not better nor worse than many other speculation vehicles. "Gold is a store of value" is the biggest fallacies of them all. Buying gold is a speculation that the price goes up, nothing more nothing less. There is no guarantee it will be a great "store of value", just like it didn't...

lol @ businessweek! "Death of the bear market" would have been a more appropriate title, just to stay true to the 79 cover :cool:

I just played around with the numbers until the results looked good. And I tried to add as many beta sources as possible. That's why the results are to be taken with a huge grain of salt. I do not advocate this allocation as a "perfect" one for anyone going forward and I strongly suggest...

Here is a simple long-only asset allocation, rebalanced monthly (i.e. not accounting for transactions costs nor for taxes), plus (!) this obviously uses the benefit of hindsight. I assume when accounting for 2/20% fees this would come very close to replicating the beta of the Tremont/Suisse...

Yes, there are many different hedge fund benchmarks. Just like there are many equity indexes, such as the SP500, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Global Index. The main thing you are missing is that comparing the Credit Suisse or HFRX broad hedge fund index to the SP500 doesn't make much sense...

Non-sense. That's like saying the SP500 is not a valid benchmark because some Chinese largecap company went bankrupt that wasn't included in the SP500.

1. Not all investors pay taxes. Endowments or offshore investors do not pay taxes. Taxes differ country by country. 2. Is the Credit Suisse/Tremont LEA Index affected by survivorship bias? Most indices are affected by some form of survivorship bias. In order to minimize this effect, the LEA...

Wrong. They outperformed a long only stock investment after fees and expenses on a RISK ADJUSTED basis, i.e. weighting returns vs. volatility. You have posted your OPINION numerous times, yet you failed to ever support your opinion with any type of fact, statistic or annualized return...

I am using eSignal data in TWS and use XLQ (http://www.qmatix.com/XLQ.htm) to dynamically feed data from TWS into Excel and then use the IB API in Excel to submit trades back to TWS. Works like a charm for me. Never tried any IB Visual Basic API though.

Siemens HQ is in Munich. "Close" to CSU :cool:

Perfect timing for hiking Spanish VAT 01/2010 :cool:

It will be interesting to see if the equity market or treasury bonds "have it right". I understand the common notion is US treasury bonds are distorted by Fed QE and Chinese buying. I would argue however that if indeed we were in for a sustainable 4%-5% GDP era bonds would react swiftly (yields...

Steinbrück is history. Thank God. One less mental midget pressing for global financial regulation.

Taxes will go up like crazy all over the G7. UK, US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy. It will be a bloodbath. Poor suckers.

It's ironic how the market forced them to hike their year end target from 235 as DJ Eurostoxx 600 broke 240 :cool:

I agree, obviously changes are necessary, but they do take time to implement. Not months but years or even a full decade. Just like the Germany economy went through a long and drawn out semi-recession during the early 90s as it suffered from overcapacities, high unit labor costs and a strong...