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When vol camps out below 10.0, this compresses broken-wing butterflies to a range just inside a vertical spread of the same net premium -- leaving the seller with an ability to roll away (to a vertical) as a revenue-neutral operation. This describes much of my 2016-2017. But just buying and...

The difference is "skew." Post up a bunch of near-market calls and puts. "Near-market" means above and below. Construct a call Bfy, a put Bfy, and an iron Bfy. Check out the pricing against the net delta of the positions. Do this again for half-a-dozen expirations, going out maybe by as much...

JUST A REMINDER: The call was for a drop of 12%; we have dropped <4%. Not to be a wet blanket or anything, but empirically, yous guys are 10,000% early. Deee-eeeeep breath now. Easy does it. No need to rush a call and end up wrong, *again*.

I would put this whole thread on my mostly-imagined "Top ET posts/threads of.... 2019" list. It is SO GREAT that you made a nice payday here, AND took some good thinking into/out-of it. Well freakin' done, SteveM. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Regardless of what the market thought about rates, off the headline was the real story: China trade talks put two tires in the ditch. "This won't go well." :banghead:

If only there were an ability to select the best route automatically! Like, in a Smart fashion. Someone should take this up with IB.....:wtf::rolleyes: :D

Here's short SPX BWButterflies (5x10) positioned along with $5, $10, $15 verticals, and associated short deltas and N(δ,σ²). The (negative) prices reflect that on TWS, these are "bought" as the strike closest to the market is long. Prices include commissions. The blue line marks the market: data...

It's doesn't matter. If IB terms it "Bob" and "Nancy" and "Susan" and "Jamil," you're going to have to stay on top of things, and call 'em Bob and Nancy and Susan and Jamil, too. A good habit, maybe every time you change TWS versions, is to run through your primary info-contracts, news sources...

((Posted elsewhere...)) SWING & a miss...... :wtf::mad::(:mad::( Haven't even read the statement yet. Press briefing may provide "pop" yet. Sheeeesh. :rolleyes: "Release the doves!" flutterflutterflutterflutter.... :banghead: CNBC's Rick Santelli just mentioned, "Well, *there's* a...

SWING & a miss...... :wtf::mad::(:mad::( Haven't even read the statement yet. Press briefing may provide "pop" yet. Sheeeesh. :rolleyes: "Release the doves!" flutterflutterflutterflutter.... :banghead: CNBC's Rick Santelli just mentioned, "Well, *there's* a quarter-point gain wasted...."...

"Nanny State-ism" at it's finest. :rolleyes: It won't matter that it destroys whole markets -- and in constraining choices, ruins liquidity born from velocity-of-money easily more than in the sliver of reserves that *may* benefit reduced choices. That won't get counted. And 'price signals'...

By denying a fuller menu of choice as to what to do with your own wealth.

Errrrr, "no!" This is a subject of hot debate -- and specifically whether "excessive" trading is a net *drag* on "properly-utilized" savings dollars and by how much. Forcing those dollars {back} into the retail banking system, to raise reserves, lower interest rates, and encourage lending -- is...

If you want to changes the lens(es) through which you view life, I don't know of a single book that might encourage such introspection better than Thoreau's Walden. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walden I started reading of Thoreau when I was 11 or 12 years old -- started by hunting out the...

If a picture is worth a thousand words, go to the 10-year view.... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade Roughly speaking, from March, 2009--> 2017, ~-$45B. From 2017--July, 2019, ~-$52B and trending further down.

Agreed, but a separate set of actors. The FED can't do fiscal policy. They only have • Money supply • FED-controled interest rates • Reserve requirements • "Extraordinary vehicles" {Balance sheet utilization, the FED "discount window", etc.} When the FED loosen's money supply, or reserve...

Ooops. Should been "drop" instead of "hike."

There is only one greek that is guaranteed. Θ. :wtf:

When the markets realize that no rate hike is coming tomorrow, AND that no rate hike is *guaranteed* (except by data, not by Tweet), they will puke up July before it becomes August: -2% from time of announcement to bottom. 36 hours later (when the reality of FED labels like "sweet spot" and...

No, not so many factors, just too poorly presented. :banghead: These guys made a fair stab at "5 option basics in 5 minutes" and I tried to top 'em with "3 option basics in 3 minutes." https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/5-basics-of-options-in-5-minutes.330524/#post-4818371 ONE DAY...