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Geez, guys -- when I add sound U.S. economic fundamentals + multiple sources of "Earnings growth!" news in multiple S&P sectors (10-15%) + stable moves in EU economic fundamentals + stable moves in EEM economic fundamentals ------------------------------------------------------------ 10-15%...

Uh ohhhhhh. The NYSE TRIN is currently at a ferocious-BEAR level of 1.71 -- this should be a major sell-off -- but the ES volume hasn't cracked 600k with just 90 minutes to go, and price is essentially unchanged from the open, and from yesterday's close. What gives?? Well, a *lot* of relative...

Honestly, I use "ZeroHedge" as a filter by which to judge [the quoter's] intelligence. Very reliable.

Nailed it. (":thumbsup:") In particular, the OP does not mention actual liability -- what dollars are put up for risk? Is this a sold naked option? Or a spread of $____ width? The question in not answerable as it stands. Howsomeever, I used to describe selling vertical spreads like this...

Today, as things eased down to SPX 2540-ish, I rolled Oct20 $10-wides at 2565/75 to 2575/85, at a cost of ~90¢, and then paid for it with Oct20 $10-wides at 2515/05. Although I really only focus on it as an after-the-fact consideration, seeing both the portfolio delta and the Oct20 positions'...

"Averaging down" is no different than "scaling-in on price declines", but to human ears, one sounds unmeasured and irresponsible, while the other sounds like prudence and long-term-eye-on-the-horizons. Humans be a weird lot. No doubt. :cool...

Possibly the stupidest thread started on ET this year. And possibly, the most harmful -- for the one thing that any mass murderer seeks, is a platform, from which to announce loudly to the world, "Hey! I exist!! And I hate you all for ignoring me!" And every second we spend -- whether from...

a VERY quick primer: Normal/Gauss: symmetric, two parameters logNormal: BIG positive (right-hand) leg, so that $0 can close the other (left-hand) side Pareto: in shape, the opposite of logNormal Weibull: "Anyway you want it, that's the way you need it....!" 4 parameters... and with those...

I ended up pulling three Oct06 parachutes [roll-ups to increasing $-@-Risk, AND going low to Oct13 (seeing as puts are usually easier to roll in this vicious-skew environment)]. Da-ammm-ammmn. But I got pissed enough that I was rolling via broken-wing butterflies, and 'buying' an extra one at...

I have a pretty extensive spreadsheet system that plots spread revenue against position delta (as, mostly, vol differences are *way* too fuzzy). That system directs me to -- guess what! -- sell high (vol) and buy low (vol). This is sub-hour stuff, mostly. Sometimes sub-day. A boat needs water...

Your question boils down to, "Is a tested, criteria-based trading system better than random entry?" The answer depends on what's going on. To give but one example, in a bullish market, a bullish system and Random Entry might give similar results. But let that market turn, and the signals from...

net liq.

Anyone who takes a pre-bottled 'technical analysis' moving average look-back parameter [what you are terming 'period', if I follow your question] and uses it without change or examination, as to whether it works for the target market underlying, time frame, and even, contemporaneous overall...

No! No! Those are excellent obs and right on target. Big ol' :thumbsup:.

Boo. Hiss. Might be better'n getting stopped out at 8-down or 10-down thought, right? Shittttttt. Myself, I covered Friday's 2545s by going wider at 2550, and opening $10-wides at 2525. (And trying like a mo-fu to buy back 2510s for a shiny 5¢. JEEEEZ what a stingy market today. The (SPX) ATR...

Dude, you can't navigate Google. Quit now.

1) What you'll see, most times, will be bracketed by the "$1.0" of the model's theta and the ~25¢ of a 6.5hour window on the day. 2) There is time decay every single second -- the clock doesn't stop for nobody/nuthin'. Whether Mistress Theta deigns to work her magic in a fine, prescribed...

Two things: Look at the IV of that puppy -- it will be huge. Why? Lumpy pricing. "End-of-Life" stuff. *Ignore* theta (and IV) on tight-time, way-OTM strikes. Look at the theta of a Oct31 2525 -- and realize that the model (and its inputs) takes things down to the second -- as in...

My bad -- I conflated SPX [eyeballs] with ES [ass-end of testes]. Good catch.

Depends especially on the expiry. In a quiet market (Oct20, or any Monday or Wednesday book), your order can sit there Limit=Mid alllllll day long. You either give up some edge, or you find a market with people in a greater hurry.