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It's all the Illuminati, the Bilderbergs and/or the Rothschilds...

Yeah, certainly could very well be... He certainly sounded p1ssed off at Ackman in the release. I do agree with Icahn, though, in that Ackman's obsession cannot be a good thing.

Well, you could argue that it's your only instantaneous indication of actual investor demand... So, of course, mkt participants extrapolate, rightly or wrongly. This happens regardless of the context, such as you mention. Whether it makes sense, I couldn't possibly tell you.

If Jefferies soliciting bids moved the price and Icahn used the dip to buy more, that would be very much like mkt manipulation, indeed. However, I was under the impression that HLF moved because of Ackman's claim, so I am not really sure how Icahn is to blame. Moreover, Jefferies denied that...

I dunno of any, tbh... In general, if you have access to a basic trading platform which allows you to see where treasuries are trading (ideally including the "when issued" bonds), you can do this yourself.

In theory, there are all sorts of stats that you could try and interpret, like the proportion of "direct" bids, etc. However, the only thing that really matters is the "tail", i.e. the difference between the auction yield and the yield prevailing just prior.

You shouldn't look at bid-to-cover for these... Still it's true that the 7y was a bit weaker than the 5y from the day before, but it wasn't really all that bad. It probably was just too close to Yellen's JH speech for people to bid enthusiastically.

'Cause people, as a rule, like collecting pennies. Using iron condors makes people feel that they're collecting pennies in front of a mountain bike, rather than a bulldozer.

How do you personally price the possibility that the death toll in the future goes to 2.1?

This is silly... Pension funds shouldn't be invested in equities? ZIRP making tbonds worthless?

This is absolutely awesome...

It may make a lot of sense for these types of investors, but the devil is very much in the details...

Yeah, there are all sorts of stories, across both the buyside and the sellside. The story is always the same: lack of respect for the power of leverage.

Yep, they were one of the victims... And indeed it was rather wrong, but what else is new.

Yeah, that's right... And sure, there were casualties. Obviously, it was all subsequently overshadowed by the bigger dramas of 2008.

I recall observing something similar in 2007 in interest rates... This type of stuff doesn't count as "being right", though.

http://www.moneyshow.com/articles/optionsidea-27452/one-is-best--naked-puts-or-covered-calls/?page=2

Indeed...

Same here... You have to be reasonably good at guessing the magnitude of the sh1tstorm. Even on a terminal basis, I've only seen vanishingly few cases where these trades are priced in a sufficiently attractive manner.

Agreed, but they've actually been doing both those things and it's not sufficient... As an illustration of point 2, if you've ever taken a cab in Tokyo, you would see. That's what all the retired guys end up doing.