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i would be the first to say that I am often wrong, so maybe that is something me and Kyle Bass have in common. However, the difference between us is that I very rarely make grand pronouncements about the shape of things to come.

He does say many things, indeed. Sometimes he delivers, sometimes he doesn't. I haven't quite done the math, in terms of his hit rate. I would just caution against taking what he says as gospel. As to his performance, I am a bit surprised, since, from what I've read, as of mid-2015 his...

Apart from all this, size is also a meaningful input... The best funds like Bridgewater's PureAlpha and Baupost have produced 13% and 16% annual returns since inception and they've been arnd since the 80s.

Yeah, Kyle Bass has said oh so many things...

Actually, given that the Liberals' program has been explicitly targeting infrastructure spending and higher economic growth, Trudeau appears to be a lot more like Trump, than Obama.

So Hempton wrote a post on this, which is good, as usual... http://brontecapital.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/home-capital-group-it-is-time-for.html I have to say, the whole thing stinks, big-time.

Here's a discussion, written by a former policy adviser to Reagan: http://ritholtz.com/2017/04/republican-tax-cut-myth/

Yes, the qualifier would help... The whole thing with the "housing bubble exploding" is a little bit too melodramatic for my taste as well.

Well, I dunno about you, but I personally find it difficult to enjoy reading articles which make statements which are obviously false. And in the title, no less.

I agree... I disagree with the usual breathless ZH headlines, is all. They've never let facts stand in the way of a good piece of drama and this story is no exception.

Yep, another load of bollocks from ZH...

ZH is full of it again... "Biggest mortgage lender"? Really? Firstly, HCG is small, as people have mentioned. Secondly, the reason for their liquidity situation isn't that they're being denied funding by the market. It's that they are being squeezed by provincial regulators to curb some...

Indeed. One of the relevant questions is the possibility of being negatively selected, i.e. always ending up with dogs. Here's the thing: new issue discount is real, although it's normally offered to large institutional investors and comes with an implicit agreement that the investor won't...

I think you should expect to get screwed... Call it a hunch, if you will.

Bingo! This, basically, is the portfolio channel. Problem is that it just doesn't seem to work in Japan, somehow.

This is emphatically not the case. Japanese savers and institutions acting on their behalf have always bought and will continue to buy and own JGBs.

Crowding out of private investors from the govt bond mkt is one of the ways QE operates, in fact. This is the so-called "portfolio channel". Whether this is specifically the stated intention of the CB depends on the program. As to what you describe as "ideal", this is sorta what people talk...

Like I said, I don't need to read these sorts of books to have a sense of how things work in Russia...

Well, you can find a certain section of pretty much any ethnic group which exhibits some undesirable "immoral" trait, even if you don't look all that hard. I am personally of the opinion, like sle and maybe others, that there really isn't anything fundamentally qualitatively different about...

The Soviet government was an equal opportunity offender... Stalin did a number on a whole lot of people. What is the point of going back in history and cherry-picking episodes like this? Unless you're implying that it's the fault of the Russian people, who are somehow fundamentally "less...