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I still don't clearly get this in futures contact. When depreciation is expected (e.g. EURUSD) why commercial traders take the opposite side...exporters in Europe worry about the depreciation in EURO so they minimise price risk by taking long position does it make sense? it's not a forward...

So that's why USDJPY appreciated (as correction )so much after there was depreciation. So the depreciation was the false picture to the fundamental information, which was caused by commercial traders

That's all you need to know for trading, I guess :) By the way, I have attached trading positions for USDJPY It looks like USDJPY will continue to strength... No wonder given that excess debt ratio in Japan

hmmm a negative interest rate in Japan...but Australian government offers some nice interest rate...so AUDUSD may not depreciate much. Look at Russia, they offer one of the most attractive interest rate!!!!!! and they will default on their bonds if they don't feel like to payback

Italy has a bit excessive debt and so is Japan ( so expect Yen to depreciate even more) Most european members have cash deficit... Inflation is not too bad though. Overall status indicates that EURUSD will depreciate soon when there is an actual interest change in US dollar, especially given...

This is the corresponding weekly chart for EURUSD. EURUSD is clearly in bearish sentiment and Yes, last week's appreciation appears to be a rally. Did you happen to know when the actual date is for US dollar interest rate change? Red circles represent price correction by speculators

Consider a short position in EURUSD than AUDUSD- speculators overall position in November tells that it anticipate a bear trend in the near future

Speculators have better information and yes, their overall position tells that it anticipate EURUSD to depreciate in the future...

commercial traders have been hedging by buying EURUSD in November, why? Swim do you know any particular reason? are they anticipating that EURUSD will rise in the near future? Please shed some light thanks

Reported short and long positions for November, 2016 - clearly there is still a bull trend in AUDUSD

Any reason why Italy would do that? If they exit then it will certainly have impact on EURO. But I haven't seen any news that signals that yet. Besides, why would Italy do that? Their economy sucks and so is their old currency Lira

I don't think it will have much impact on EURUSD since Italy isn't a dominant nation but EURUSD may appreciate until there is an actual change in interest rate in US dollar.

Let's check the date for interest rate change in US dollar. Usually prices go oppositely until there is a change in the interest rate. I certainly do take a short position when there is a bear trend but I will NOT take a short position when it is in a bull trend . Having said, I will more focus...

Hi Mr. Big Mac , It's good to see you back at Forex forum :) I have access to almost all financial data as I am also a financial market database administrator for my University

According to my research results, I see commercial traders usually take short positions for hedging purpose and when there is excess selling, they create extreme volatility in the price. On the hand, there is some constraint on market makers' activity and one of them is that they are not allowed...

For news driven ones like BreXit, US election, interest change, yes maybe. Price discovery is my third PhD research topic( which I haven't done yet) so I can't give you scientific evidence yet.

Yes I do experience the same thing. By the way, This could be a reason why I found that there is excess selling above a round number and excess buying below a round number...traders set their stop/limit orders at a round number. But because of slippage, trades are initiated just above and below...

You guys are talking about skills without talking about market characteristics. Never ever take short positions after a bull trend for reversing strategy, you will never make a consistent profit. Market becomes very volatile. Focus on long positions, this is the truth

Audusd, on 1 m, I am waiting for double bottom, made a small profit at expected spike but now aiming to get bigger profit. Usdjpy, on 30 m, it's going through a correction but on a micro scale, it's having a bull trend, so just waiting for it to depreciate below ma100. Eurusd , not really...

oh my...do you mean that you're still holding the short position from yesterday??