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Maybe recreational poker is only about pot odds and reading people, but at higher levels, you put players on ranges, and you use those ranges together with pot odds (and other math, reverse pot odds, implied pot odds) to find your expected value of a given hand. Some strategies like GTO are...

Strange..what are you playing? Any of the top strategies are still crushing 5/10 live for 8-12 BB/100 in holdem. Omaha has higher win rates at the same level. My friend recently took me to a dog race track in Melbourne(I think that's the name) florida. We ended up playing 10/10 PLO with truck...

LOL which one of you monkeys are fading me here? LCRX position down almost 10% since posting!

I am in for a small position LRCX strangle 180/177.5 for 8.88. Over the past 4 years, they always report before the Easter weekend. If they confirm, during this cycle, the straddle should go to $13.5 Edit** added some calendars for .97

Hey guys, some long vol I have on going into earnings. LMK if you guy see any different. PEP @ 13 realized vol going into earnings is pricing in a 1.6% move. Usually implies 3.5% over last 4 quarters + last move was 3%. Looks like free gamma. SLB (this one is juicy) @ 26 realized vol going into...

I was asking @srinir if he has read any papers on how indices move during these events.

$75 a month using Quandl. I originally took a look at the major etfs, but did find anything interesting. Have you read a paper that talks about how indices react to different events? I love that table, I'll probably build something similar. Thanks! Tom, I love your enthusiasm and I am sure your...

Hi all, I have been modelling the effect economic indicators/earnings has on equities. The equities I am looking at are not the equities under the lime light during the event. An example (I currently have a trade on) is how DHI will react to LEN earnings announcement. Another example is how a...

Shorting DHI vol over LEN earnings. DHI is implying a 3.7% move across LEN earnings. Only moved that much 2x over the last 12 LEN earnings. Pic below is C_C move of DHI on LEN earning dates.

I don't want to crowd this thread (last post from me) out of synthetic at 6.20 risk. This was the quickest money I have made and the position lost a ton on delta! Amazing

Joined the bandwagon risk of 5.25, position is already flicking 6.10. I might exit before the close. Thanks for posting.

It's friday, do you feel like critiquing a thought process/trade? I bought 11 straddles on SYNA yesterday @ 36 vol expiring April 18. Total vega position is 90 :p . Their was some company specific news released a few days ago + lower guidence for next quarter and the company plunged 15%...

https://www.quandl.com/databases/SF1/documentation?anchor=exception-handling These guys provide a large data set (sure public information) for a low cost of $29, as @sle mentioned, quandl makes it super convenient. If you have a some basic programming knowledge, scrape this site...

This was what I was looking for. Thanks oldmonk. I believe they are different. Old Monk explained. Daily break even is roughly IV/16 assuming you are delta hedging. The straddle px is the terminal break even or the average move assuming no delta hedging.

I have read this countless of times by reputable posters, it's even in Sinclairs book and Natenburgs (IV/16 = daily break even) which is why I am confused. Here is ours truly @Martinghoul explaining it a few times. "If IV is in %, your daily breakeven is (IV*S)/sqrt(252)." "1) you have...

Considering the formula for the daily break even as Iv/16 where 16 is Sqrt(252). This tells us the the 1 day SD and it also tells us where our break even point is. But the straddle price for a 1 day option is .79*SD move. This would mean that our break even is not the SD but rather the mean...

What I am really trying to get at is, what do those numbers look like these days at different levels of status. For instance, you are most likely (I hope) looking for much thinner spreads than I am. I might be able to risk 10% and my forecast vol is 40% above market on a thinly traded security...

In today's world what is a significant vol spread for pm's managing 8-10 figures vs a trader managing 5 - 7? For example, SPX is trading at 20 Vol, you would initiate a 1 month long gamma/Vega spread when your forecast vol is...? I was reading some old posts on NP (2004) where they were talking...

Delta is the instantaneous rate of change of the option. Once the underlying moves by a penny the gamma is different and so the delta will also be different. Maybe the confusion is coming from looking at your risk as delta only. You should be looking at it through a broad picture. If you buy...