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!! Nice work. Yea, I am out of everything 2. My account and my lawn are both starting to turn green! Just in time for Easter! Have a great long weekend everyone!!!

@oldmonk try and get out @ open. AXP worked out beautiful for u! It looked scary tho after the initial plunge this morning

UNP ON FIRE!!. DHR staying put. Looks like a big green day yet again! This was a big week for me!! (Needed it!!)

Where did I say it was bad? If you buy an asset that you think has a large potential growth, why would you cap your gains?!! Sell calls on something that has slow and steady growth! (OEX, SPX). QQQ in my opinion has shown some serious growth and may continue to grow at a high pace!

You want to write calls on the stock that offers the least upside potential. According to history that means you should sell calls on SPY

Could be worse. You could have made that mistake on TSLA....

I think your data is a bit off. Manually take a look @ the last 4 quarters. I see some big moves 2 earnings ago which does not show up on your chart. The gap was 2% and the move was almost 4% Liquidity just came in on the wings get in on the synthetic fly on DHR!! Vol is way to expensive here.

I have avg mv 3% last 16 quarters. %5 moves are not uncommon. But all the major banks have released so I cant see AXP moving to much. Good Luck!

I dont see the juice in AXP! Any reason for not selling DHR?

Are you short DHR? I just got filled on a short. I think the move just happened. Implied move pretty steep. I agree with you that you are collecting idiosyncratic risk premium. However I recently got in touch with Euan about this topic and he said recently there has been some major banks that...

Had a great morning closing CSX @ 3.71 and ABT @ 1.82. We have some real juice in the UNP long straddle. Long 177 avg @ 4.32. First UNP is implying a 2.4% move. Margin for error is quite high. Avg move last 16 quarters is 3.6%. But as I have learned implied mv/avg mv is not enough to implement...

I dont want to count my chickens before they hatch but CSX almost @ 80 right now. Did anyone else take this trade?

FWIW I am short ABT vol as well. Short 71/76.5 76.5/82 for 2.25. They have been pretty transparent with their on going projects in Mar and Feb. We also have a implied move of 3.2% which is almost double actual. Edit* I think the earnings move already happened today. ABT down 1.3%

Long CSX straddle going into earnings. Implied move is just under 3%. EVERYONE is bullish on this stock and its about to break to all time highs. So if it misses, I think we see a pretty big plunge and if it beats, it will break to all time highs. The earnings moves also show some seasonality...

This strat looks kind of interesting. Leveraged 2x overnight (long), short 1x intraday. red = SPY blue = Strategy

np, I'd calculate the risk metrics for you, but I am a little busy right now. I'll do so tomorrow, if no one else does it.

Red is normal Log return. Blue is Log Intraday return Green is Log Gap Return Data since 2007 I attached non-cummulative log returns if anyone wants to do further analysis. But It looks like a clear winner!!

I've also placed some long straddles on AKAM yesterday going into earnings (the trade is still there). May3 75 Straddle from $6. The 77 is Marked at $5.97 right now. Here are the last 6 quarters straddle prices for the weeklies before AKAM earnings events. 5.48 6.38 5.51 5.79 5.28 5.87 If you...

Trying WFC one more time. Stepping up the size and adding some long JPM straddles as a hedge. JPM vol is @15 right now WFC @25. Long the 132C 42.5/46.5/48.5 for 2.41. Long 1 JPM straddle per 3 Flys. The vol on this should be 20 @ Monday open

Out @ 1.85 can not abide. WFC down 6%(from intraday peak)