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You seriously don't know what a stockout is? OK, let me make this easier for you. The curve is in backwardation. Spot prices are 55, 30 day forwards are at 53. Walk me through the arbitrage. Come on dude, this is finance 101.

Please walk us through the arbitrage when there is a stock out condition. I'm eagerly listening...

Forward curves do you have predictive value. All the above statements I made are correct. Read this carefully. They are NOT a prediction. But they "offer" predictive value. There is a difference.

It's not insider knowledge. These guys make markets in physical supplies. In some cases, they own all aspects of the value chain meaning they own refiners, cargo ships, barrels, pipelines, etc. Because they are integrated, they can optimize their supply chain. It's not a question of...

I'm done with this thread. ZZZ1 is a fraud and there is no use debating him. I can give you some good books depending on what specifically you want to learn more. This book is considered the bible for oil. Very dense and very technical. A simpler but still good comprehensive book on all...

Please don't tell me that you think Vitol is plotting the 200 day moving avg of front month crude to generate their billions in profits. LOL. I love ET. Better then the Oscars.

To dispute every factually incorrect thing you posted which was everything. Christ man, you are making me work hard here fact checking your shit.

Of course it has predictive value. What the f*ck do you think an energy analyst does for a living? LOL. I can't wait to hear this answer.

I'm talking about the trading houses! LOL. For God's sake. These firms are aggressive traders AND they hold physical assets. The assets you "claim" are trivial information. LOL.

Dude, for fucks sake. I'm not talking about Shell. The big 4 are in the business of optimizing assets. I'm talking about the trading houses! You recognize those names right? Glencore, trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor? They are the aggressive speculators, not Exxon. The 4 firms I just named are...

Are you serious? Going forward I suspect on dependence on fossil fuels will diminish with time and the higher oil goes, the cheaper the substitution effect. ,

I did my Masters Thesis in this topic. Did you?

Forward pricing in energy futures follows Woking's (1934) theory of cost of storage. In other words, the forward price of oil represents the capital cost and the cost of storage for storing oil from time t to T.

The shape of the curve DOES depict accurately the storage balance over time. You seriously are not debating this are you?

My comments are regarding the economics of oil, not short term trading. I have opinions on oil that are separate from the dialogue of this thread.

Commercials are not getting it wrong. They are not in the business of "predicting" oil. They produce oil at cost and sell on the margins. BP is one slight exception as they have historically been aggressive in the paper markets as well as the physical. But firms like Trafigura, Vitol...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-05/vitol-said-to-post-highest-profit-since-2011-as-oil-prices-swing

The physical players are cleaning up. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Over the next 50 years...yes. This is not really disputed in the economics community although some will say we will be using very little of that oil and that is likely the case but we will run out of "economical oil" and that is a fact.

You are confusing "prediction" with value.