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It's not a deficiency argument, it's a mathematical one and one that can be proved. Efficient markets are generally hard to forecast because markets are a discounting mechanism. The best explanation for this was John Maynard Keynes. In the 1930's he explained what speculation is and its...

T3 is not a real prop firm.

A few comments on randomness. From an economic perspective, the issue is not whether markets are random, it's a matter of how efficient they are. The most commonly held view (and the one I agree with) is that markets are "mostly"random. This should make intuitive sense if you think about it...

Here is a snapshot of the coinbase index. The high was back on Dec 17th at 8,000.

Here is a picture of the before and after of one of the largest trading floors in the US which was UBS in Stamford, CT.

It's a good question. I think with vol in general coming down it has changed the NLs. The good thing is that NLs are adaptive to these changes. With vol dropping, the OR gets smaller and the A levels get smaller so on a "relative" basis the score is still accurate. But the difference is in...

Nobody needs to do anything quickly. The biggest players in the FX market are actually companies like GOOGL and GE and KO. They have to hedge their cash flows in 55 different countries. But they do it gradually over time. They are not "calling in to move it fast". Again, those old videos on...

The FX market is all algos. Just try going to indeed.com and looking up FX dealer positions. Almost non-existant. In fact, the FX market was the FIRST market to go all algo, way before equities. Sure there are still guys in the exotic derivatives space but those are structured products...

Wow, that is terrible. Not even Brian Hunter managed to go debit. That takes some special magic.

This is what he said, "I don't want to use my own money, or much of it, would like to try new strategies on someone else's dime."

All algos. Large amounts of money can be moved with relative ease. The reason you see spikes in FX rates is not because of large players moving money but because large players abstain from the market when these events happen. It's actually the lack of liquidity that is causing those spikes...

Michael Clayton is a great movie. That we agree on. As for the bigger players, not anymore. When I first got in this game it was very easy to pick them apart. They were manually doing their executions and were going all in. Today it's all algos. If some fund wants to take a 5% stake in...

By the way, all of this is detailed in this thread. I really don't want to have to re-write the entire thread for your benefit. I swear to you, if you can just get through the first 50 or so pages, it's all there, I promise. Just spend a weekend going through it. The payoff is there I promise.

Not at all. ALL my trading in energies was fading A levels to get entries. The wide OR was perfect and offered the best risk/reward setups. Say WTI had been strong for 3 days and in a solid uptrend. You get an inventory that would create a nice downward spike with a VERY wide OR. The wider...

It actually works really well around oil inventories. I use to trade this. Both for oil and natty. See the purpose of using the OR during a shock event is that is when there is high volume and a lot of players entering and exiting the market. It becomes an anchor. It's the same logic as in...

I get asked this a lot. I've refined my answer over the years. I think it all boils down to cost/benefit analysis. Most people in life are horrible at this. We take huge risks for little rewards or don't understand the expected values of various outcomes. Traders MUST be able to maximize...

From the Economist, not exactly a right wing mouthpiece. https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21717838-republicans-and-democrats-have-been-equally-culpable-adding-rulebook-too-much Grudges and kludgesToo much federal regulation has piled up in America IF REPUBLICANS in Congress unite...

Sig, I never said regulations are bad. Please don't do that. Regulations are created by lobbyists. And they serve a special interest. On both sides of the aisle. In very few cases do these benefit the majority. It's usually to empower the wealthy. They are also usually more often then not...

Yes longer period does mean more. Get back to me in 2 years ok?

Well look whose back. My buddy TJ! Cash certainly is not zero risk. Ask the Venezuelans about that. :)