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I am away from my Bloomberg (really away, like 1000 miles), but aren't these exchangeable for common stock like convertible preferred stock, but subordinated in case of default (so better then preferred stock, but not a senior debt either)?

Sorry, so why not buy index puts instead? It's cheaper and CBA getting any sort of a smack-down is a system-wise event anyway. Heck, if you think CBA is going down 50% I'd say S&P 500 puts might be the best play.

You're trolling us, right?

made my day

You should have the balls to call me out instead of making a theoretical statement :cool:

Oh, I see. You would be better off just using ATM vol and doing simple RV-IV tests then. Variance swap includes a fair amount of convexity premium, so it will always come in as expensive on RV/IV basis since the var swap payoff = (realized_vol^2 - var_strike^2)/(2*var_strike).

I don't get the whole volunteering fad. If I'd go and serve at a soup kitchen or go clean cages at dog shelter, I would be doing work that pays the minimum wage. So, from the productivity perspective, I would be throwing out X dollars for every hour I volunteer. Instead, what I actually do is...

It's the opposite. You would be backing implied vol out of American options on a product with a complex dividend term structure (plus, there are other complications there due to the nature of the ETF). Doing it on bond futures and correcting for CTD-related issues is actually easier.

Why do you think variance swap is a better proxy for checking volatility risk premium? I would say it's not true. PS. really, equity index variance swap data is available for free? Unless you are talking about the few VIX-like indices out there, it's hard to find reliable variance swap data...

An equally interesting question is - would you retire completely once you hit your target number? I hit mine a few years ago. It's a strange feeling but I can't seem to want to step away - I get too restless.

It's just an example where statistical learning and cognition learning are miles away from each other. My point is that what defines intelligence is not excellence in a specific activity, but the reasoning ability. We strongly distinguish between bright children and idiot-savants, don't we?

When I was doing my PhD, I've always felt that lumping SML with AI is somewhat wrong (while now I am happy to do that now when VC funding is at stake :) ). For example, look at machine translation - SML-based solutions have brought us to a point when machine-translation is semi-usable. Yet it's...

Of course, but I feel like we are arguing about apples and oranges. Your argument is that automation can do many tasks better then 90% of human beings - I'd say that (a) that number is too low and (b) it's not a very difficult benchmark to beat. The majority of human beings pretty much suck at...

Just out of curiosity, would you distinguish AI from SML? In my mind, SML is nothing more then a clever statistical hack to solve a specific data analysis problem (which, granted, could be pretty complex like facial recognition). I did my degree on using SML to solve real life problems and I...

Based on the premise of the OP, the benchmark should be the best drivers. If you can teach a computer to win in chess against the highest ranked players, it should have a better driving record then the top human drivers. The key difference is, also, that the known automated driving accidents are...

I thought this was going to matter for the DMA players only, no? A cursory explanation was that these new charges were for raw data access.

First of all, I did give you the annualized return from 1900 to 2017, which you stated totally wrong. Obviously, if you play around with the pre-Great Depression peak, you can find a life-time holding period that loses money or makes 2% as you state, but it's an exception, not a rule. If you...

Well, anti-missile defense system is a pretty serious shift in the balance of nuclear deterrence. I totally understand why a country that depends solely on its nuclear deterrence for self-defense would be unhappy about it. Would you not agree that if Russia was not a nuclear power, it would join...

The media has conditioned us to think that if a trader is depressed, it's due to bad performance. Most of the suicides have nothing to do with financial pressures, finance professionals included. Depression can be trigged by anything - it could be family, it could be physical condition. It could...

It's a tricky question. Obviously, a business that delivers a real service is usually not a scam. We are too lose in using that word. However, if naiveté of the customers is a crucial component of the business model, it can safely be called a scam. Let's take a concrete example. Someone goes...