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I'm not betting against the stock market, the Fed will consider their own actions and fiscal policy actions in their forecasts when they consider tightening. 3.5% growth is nice but the new normal is alive and well given that the growth is fueled by constant stimulus

GDP is set to growth 3.5% this year with 11% of GDP deficits and more balance sheet expansion by the Fed plus 0% rates, this is hardly a strong economy. ex-government the economy is still weak

True. I would not be surprised if in 5 years most of the wizards from Inside the House and Invisible hands have shutdown or went broke

Ironic given that he loves to bet on the front end. How he managed to lose money is what I want to know

Rick Santelli, a veteran from the pits, seem to be aware that the Fed Futures deferred contracts tend to price in things other than true probabilities of Fed hikes http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1788949240&play=1 Says there is quite a difference between the next meeting implied probs...

"Warsh’s term would have run through January 2018; most Fed governors don’t serve out their full terms. His resignation opens a second vacancy on the seven-member Board of Governors and leaves Elizabeth Duke, a former community banker, as the only governor not appointed or reappointed by...

Anti-Inflation Stance Warsh staked out an anti-inflation stance on monetary policy in September 2009, when he published a Wall Street Journal op-ed and gave a speech saying the Fed may need to raise interest rates with “greater force” than it has in the past. In June, he said any decision...

I'm sure the first question Obama will ask the substitute will be 'so when you do think it will be appropriate to exit the loose money policies'

Warsh resigns http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/other20110210a1.pdf Guess he thinks its about time to make a killing in the private sector

Looking at the long term chart of iexpectations, one can see that the 2008 inflation scare barely affected expectations. I see very little reason why iexpectations would unanchor to the upside in 2011 http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10:IND

As I have speculated last year, Fed Futures seems inherently uncalibrated as to whether the Fed would raise rates at any given level of inflation, iexpectations and unemployment. That seems to happen because of term and risk premia but the bottom line is that it explains the 'free lunches' I...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/09/483331/the-inflation-disconnect-charted/ "Fed rate hikes are ‘always a day away’ for the market. Just not for the actual Fed."

Rogoff interview http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/02/10/qa-ken-rogoff-says-crises-are-like-heart-attacks-predicting-timing-is-tough/

Maybe Merkel is behind the whole thing, this dude wanted to raise borrowing costs for the EU region sooner rather than later, that could bankrupt an additional country or 2 which she would have to bailout

I'm sure its for 'personal reasons'

I bought a bit more, as of right now on no hike I will have a gain of about 21% of my networth on 2 hikes I will have a loss of a similar amount. On 1 hike, I lose less than 5% On 3 hikes or more I lose a lot but I'm still young, I can afford to take these less than 1% risks. I do know I have...

The implied prob of the dec ZQ fed futures contract is 70% for a rate hike. Seems insane, I'm controlling my urge to buy more, I'm already quite long. As it currently stands 1 rate hike makes longs lose 6.5bps and no hike makes about 30bps(assuming EFF will go down some more) You only get...

Looks like the bureaucracy theory is going back to the trash can "Fisher says will dissent any further QE"

"Meredith Whitney Called To Testify Before House On Her Muni Call" lol, free speech where art thou

Fed Funds Futures Go Green: February 28, 2011 Beginning Sunday, February 27, 2011 (trade date Monday, February 28, 2011), CME Group will extend the listing cycle of 30-Day Fed Funds futures by offering a third year of monthly expirations, effectively listing 36 consecutive monthly expiries...