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Lets say NFP misses, the SPX then drops 1%. Its very hard to tell how much of that represents true risk (the chance that the market is seeing an economic downturn) and how much of that represents the marginal sellers with marginal capital (stock investments that they HAVE to sell soon) playing...

Yes. Most of the time when these things happen, they involve real and significant shocks that disrupt things in a country. Economic collapses, wars, severe banking crisis, sovereign default etc. To me, these are the true risks. But there are also the fake risks (most of the things that...

This nonsense is playing out right now with the Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP projections, or even the hard data vs soft data charts. The healthcare vote also. Stocks are forward looking investment with exponential payoffs, that stuff is mostly irrelevant. A better way to put it perhaps is to say that...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/06/ecris-admits-incorrect-recession-call.html Interesting post from back in 2015 "As an aside, if investors sold when ECRI first made their recession call in Sept 2011, they would have missed close to a 75% increase in the market! But Kudos to ECRI for...

Check out the Letters section from the April 1st 2017 Economist magazine. It talks about how 'no army can stop an idea whose time has come'. EU fatigue is real, I will play that in the future, I just want to time it well rather than endure the pain for months/years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-11/toyota-says-u-s-market-has-peaked-as-car-woes-spur-discounts Auto market could have peaked in the US but I'm not too worried about it when it comes to my GM shares because this stuff is already in the price. Automarkers are trading at midish...

I got a Betfair account, I'm just not sure I would have positive expected value on my bet there. I know so little about France and politics is so unpredictable

For small players like me I'm not sure I need to. I can always react after the fact. If people like Tepper can't go big because they are afraid of the negative scenarios (as they don't have the liquidity to get out), that means that those that have the liquidity (the small players) have a...

Two things that made me change my view -Ackman said before the 2014 presentation (where the stock rallied 20-30% during and after it), 'there is no chance the stock will rise' -Ackman said also 'I had never met the latin community before', I believe that was 6 months after the 2014 presentation...

I watched Betting on Zero last week and that tilted me to thinking that Ackman is likely to be wrong on Herbalife (I was thinking that perhaps it was a 60/40 situation). I was already fully hedged before (actually, slighly long as I purchased more HLF shares in addition to HLF calls), now I'm...

Gordon Ramsay said he will not leave his $150M fortune to his children, only 25% of a down payment for a house to each. He says they are supposed to achieve and earn things on their own. This guy is great, I think his plan is genius. The biggest expense people will ever have is housing (although...

STRP is not even the worst I have seen, last year AGN took out a company for a 600% premium, TBRA. Random short squeezes also tend quite large when they happen

lol, I had no idea he does it better than most by being tiny in each short but then that raises the question of whether is that worth if it at all. at 0.5%-1% position sizes, you need so many ideas every year to make it a difference to returns that it doesn't seem worth the effort/due...

STRP received a giant buyout offer by AT&T ($95 with last trade at $36). Great example of the Hempton 'short small and mid caps and claim you take less risk' approach flaws A lot of the risk in that approach is hidden on the tails, what shows up in the normal period sample matters very little

The Buffett buyback trigger right now is ~$137 (20% premium to book value). When they report Q1 earnings and file the 10-Q, that is likely to move to $140 (as book value grows). From current prices then, there is a -16% downside to the stock until the trigger kicks in. By year end, that figure...

BRKB is in the middle of a decent sized pullback, perhaps now its a good time to add some

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4060737-berkshire-hathaway-depth-look-normalized-return-equity My favorite BRKB analyst gives an update on the stock. This is probably the safest way to play the Trump bull market. Worse case, you own something quite a bit cheaper than the S&P500. Less downside...

https://www.ft.com/content/5d0c4ed2-19ff-11e7-a266-12672483791a Good FT article about Brazil. I would add that if pension reform fails to pass, it still has a shot at passing in 2019 when a new president and new congress takes over. Its highly likely they will be more to the right and willing...

Here are two potential sources of future money for smart leverage -Inherhitances that highly likely to be able te estimated/counted on and that might within a few years -Social Security/Retiree pensions for old investors that are getting close to retirement There are probably many others

Lets say someone is worth $100,000 and its July 2008. This person thinks global stock markets are getting quite cheap and wants to invest all of those assets in a global stock market ETF. After investing, markets fell apart and went even lower. Thing is, that person also happens to own a car...