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"Given what we know about Trump’s personality, I think his choice to fire Comey is consistent with both the scenario where he is guilty of Russia coordination, and one where he isn’t. The consensus narrative which claims Trump firing Comey is proof of his guilt and merely an attempt to cover up...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-10/goldman-asks-if-yellen-has-lost-control-market-warns-fed-policy-shock

This convexity stuff started to become more clear to me when I read this note from Taleb and that helped me to get convexity to much deeper level "Take for example the binomial distribution with B[N, p] probability of success (avoidance of failure), with N=50. When p moves from 96% to 99% the...

Wasnt them who were able to issue USD bonds for the first time ever? Or something like that In bonds, specially during periods of great optimism, I actually like the idea of being a skeptic/short. Bonds offer a lot less upside and the data indicates that a lot of them have negative real returns...

I see that IB does not allow trading in any of the TSLA bonds, so that convert is out. I don't think its a huge deal because there is probably a way to mimic those bonds by buying the stock, way OTM puts and regular sales of a small part of the stock position (to mimic the coupon from the...

He does bring up a great point about people underestimating FB, GOOG, AMZN and this could be happening again

Chamath Palihapitiya explaining his TSLA thesis. The most remarkable part is that he did all that without an indian accent

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-03/why-i-lost-my-bet-with-warren-buffett Interesting article. The other side of the Buffett bet story, he brings up some good points

I think the key about these convexity bets is to avoid them when they are popular themes. Like Bitcoin right now, its probably a bad time to buy as the price action is probably drawing a lot of speculative capital into that, which sends the price higher, etc etc. Its likely that you will be...

If you think about it, the ideal situation would be if Musk traded a share of his lifetime earnings. That way you would get ALL his sucesses (including SpaceX and his future companies). But of course, he is not crazy to do that, he wants to keep it for himself a lot of that stuff. But when TSLA...

Its interesting that in the case of Bitcoin, its easier to see the potential, you compare the current market value of Bitcoin vs of Gold. As a result, a lot of people can understand might this thing might be very valuable, there will still be plenty of skeptics but even the skeptics can...

AAPL is a great example, also, that a genius running a company long enough might be able to create a culture that lasts even AFTER he dies. He will put in place values, priorities, methods and develop a brand that will have lasting power. So a buyer of TSLA now would benefit from that too. Musk...

From Ira Sohn "Social Capital’s Palihapitiya Likes Tesla 2022 Convertible Bonds Chamath Palihapitiya recommended owning Tesla Inc.’s 2022 convertible bonds, saying they protect potential upside and downside. He called Elon Musk “our generation’s Thomas Edison” and compared Tesla to an...

what about buying and owning them in your own wallet? as I understand you can store in those wallet sites but if they get hacked, you can lose it all. if you store with yourself, if you lose your key you lose the money forever. what are your thoughts on benefits and drawbacks of each? I'm...

Yeah, this is quite a premium, plus they charge high asset management fees. If I may ask, how do you own your digital coins?

The tough thing about convexity and Antifragile is that Taleb himself (the author and pundit side of him) is quite a skeptic, he is a very cynical and negative guy. Its tough to learn that concept and think how it should affect you from a negative guy. You don't fully learn until you look at how...

So instead of being an skeptic with these 'synthetic shorts' or 'fantasy shorts' and having a giant negative virtual P&L, I'm going one step further and saying 'if being a skeptic is so bad, why not take the other side of these trades? why not claim those virtual profits from longs and turn into...

Its interesting that you broght this up because when I truly realized how powerful convexity was (which only happened after I read Anfragile for the 4th time and thought more about it), I thought about buying Bitcoin. This thing looked like a bubble in the charts at $100, now its at $1500...

I find Das worth every penny

When the Healthcare house vote failed pundits came out and said Trump was a amateur and it was proof he was a bad dealmaker. Well, now it has passed with a tiny margin despite the fact that the previous speaker, Boehner, said Republicans will never agree on healthcare. Will these pundits come...