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I figure at the very least, cryptos are good as part of a asset allocation because they help hedge a gold position. Truth is that these coins are even better than gold in a lot of ways, the more they grow, the more the chance that the will take demand away from gold. So being long them for me is...

kraken, I cannot vouch for its safety, I have no idea. I mentioned trying to open an account at BTC-e in the past and they got shutdown, so there is risk. I do plan to keep my ETH in 'cold storage', so if kraken goes bust, I will keep my coins. I will still keep some there for margin purposes in...

Charts you wont find at ZeroHedge: Forward PEs have explained the market a lot better than the almost useless Shiller PE. Analysts have done a better job than a professor mechanical and slow indicator. They deserve props not criticism, sure they can be wrong, but who isn't? I will react when...

People have an aversion to forward PEs because they got this contrarian itch that makes them have a huge bias against stock analysts (they will overplay stuff like 2008 and under play all the years analysts have been right in calling the market cheap/fairly valued since 2009) . But then they...

"Any comparison to past overheated markets are ridiculous," he told CNBC's Scott Wapner in a telephone interview Tuesday. "Look at where multiples and rates were in 1999. I'm not saying stocks are screaming cheap, but you're nowhere near an overheated market." Tepper's comments come the same...

I also plan to add a fair amount if ETH does break $400

One way to know that the crypto bears are full of shit and are too dumb to realize their silliness, is to consider that if there is a 1% chance the ETH goes to $5,000, that is worth $50. But if there is a 4% chance, that is worth $200. That's almost the price one is paying today. Little changes...

Bought a 0.5% long-term position in Ethereum today on this dip. Maybe new all-time highs later this year

I think that great traders and investors are really good at exploiting convexity in their decisions. They are not great because they understand reality well. IMO Reality is too difficult to understand, the world is too complex, there are too many moving parts, hidden risks. Soros is a great...

Here is an email I exchanged with Damodaran ----------- Aswath, The mean reversion that I'm referring to is a little different. I'm talking more about the idea of averaging 10y earnings instead of using current conditions as a guide to the future. For instance, your implied risk premium uses...

One thing that made me respect Damodaran more was his case for TWTR. He said that his DCF analysis did not justify his $25 entry price but he saw a lot of optionality (what I prefer to call convexity) on the company as they could find a way to monetize its user base. That's a very Silicon Valley...

I do think the Shiller PE has SOME value when it comes to telling when a market is cheap because as I mentioned, the long side has limited risk (you cant lose more than what you put in) and most of the time you buy a market that is down a lot and has a low Shilller PE, it will work and things...

Its implicit on the Shiller PE that something will happen to profit margins and profitability (either good or bad). People can rely on Robert Shiller to do that work for them or they can do it themselves, but that forecasting work will be done and a bet will be made whether the person admits or...

The Shiller CAPE seems very dangerous in 2 situations. One is when a market is 'expensive' and then goes through a profit boom Lets say a index is a 1000, the 10y avg profit is 50 (20 Shiller PE). Then something happens and profits soar. The index might go to 1500 but the avg profit only to 55...

I rather pay more attention to current earnings and forward earnings (calculated by me or by analysts, with precautions around given that people can forecast wrongly. The chance of error is not much different from the chance that the Shiller PE is completely worthless). The last earnings figure...

Since the Shiller PE uses a 10y avg, it still being distorted by figures from the past. AIG and some banks had a big impact on those earnings, why is any of this relevant?

Damodaran might be an academic but I respect him a lot more than Shiller. He publishes his calls, he buys the stocks he says are undervalued and takes the flak/criticism when he is wrong (as he has been on VRX and TWTR). He also has been involved in the stock market for like 30 years (as a...

Great piece by Damodaran on the Shiller PE http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.br/2016/08/mean-reversion-gravitational-super.html And by email he told me : "The Shiller PE is one of the most oversold metrics in the market. Cyclically adjusting (which is just a fancy name for averaging over ten...