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From an outsider perspective, there is that. However, I'm more interested in the question: assuming I can beat the market, how much should I put in stocks I really like? According to Buffett, its a fair amount. Way more than most people are comfortable with or would advocate. Perhaps the true...

The fund was called The Buffett Partnership, LTD and the manager was Warren Buffett. It was written in 1966 http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/complete_buffett_partnership_letters-1957-70_in-sections.pdf page 91

Because I just read this off a hedge fund letter "We might invest up to 40% of our net worth in a single security under conditions coupling an extremely high probability that our facts and reasoning are correct with a very low probability that anything could drastically change the underlying...

I wanna get a hold of this multi-country dataset going back 100 years (if anyone know where to get it in excel format for free, let me know). I'm interested in the volatility part not as much in the return part of it. I want to see if by using 10 year holding periods, how many countries do...

I decided to try to replicate the author's findings to see if there is some data mining going on (especially given the suspicious 1933 start date). Turns out that they are mostly right, using Damodaran's return database (1928-2016) with inflation adjusted figures I found: The Neg SD is the...

Yes, financial market data is unstable and vulnerable to outliers. However, some conclusions can be drawn from long samples (and IIRC the data I posted originally is from the US from 1933 to 2000), especially when the data repeats similarly on multiple countries. Maybe the US will go down a bad...

If I understand you, you are raising the concern that the volatility figure itself is unstable. And if the data sample is increased, that the conclusions could change?

Can you re-explain with simpler language?

"Here's another way to express the amazing decline in risk as time passes and you hold your stocks. Over a one-year period the standard deviation for stocks is 18 percent. This means that in two out of three years the return on a stock will vary by no more than 18 percentage points from the...

Where did you get this 2% from? I believe its more like 7-8%, at least judging by some of his statements

Went to defense mode on cryptos. Shorted some on margin on Kraken, also shorted MGTI (a worthless stock that is pumping itself with bitcoin). If the market implodes, I will be fully protected. This sure looks very toppy. I have to post this for ethical reasons. Just a headsup

I will briefly interupt my hiatus to mention a couple things, first this great article by Livermore http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/09/pmbtdo/ He comes to similar conclusions as I did on my rants against Jeremy Grantham. Except I would go further than him, he attacks the 'studies'...

they also tried to ban alcohol, how did that work out?

They gov cant confiscate the bitcoin that people hold through cold storage or hardware wallets. not unless they get millions of warrants to enter millions of residences

e-gold is actually a terrible example because the money became worthless as soon as the government stepped in. with bitcoin that has not happened and plenty of people got arrested and sites got shutdown. its the decentralization vs centralization advantage. USDTether is closer to your point...

This is just going to create the opportunity for non-US exchanges and sites to take over the market

what can they do? to outlaw the ownership of numbers and letters?

I will be taking a break from posting in this journal. Tks everyone who participated

myetherwallet.com both creates private wallets as well as let you access it and make transactions, but they dont store your private key, so its safer than most. Is there an equivalent but for bitcoin?

I'm noticing that more and more of the good players are becoming 'mentors' or 'coaches', they rather teach and collect fee income than play. Poker as a business has been a dying business for years. I realized this trend and bailed out of it in late 2011. The vast majority of players are money...