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You would probably be farther ahead if you made that your ignore list.

It's very dificult to be specific. (A variation of Newtons Law) By following my plan I have a greater probability of outperforming the market. I only have anecdotal evedence (my own trading) but I have managed to do this for the past 20 years. Could be just luck but I'll continue to follow my plan.

It is a crutch or possibly an edge. "I lost my ass today, but I followed my plan." isn't something you'll ever hear me say because if I follow the plan I won't lose my ass. I wonder how many of the net losers on this board actually have a plan?

The plan doesn't stop you from getting punched in the face, it tells you what to do next. The thing is that if you have a plan and the discipline to follow your plan then you soon find out if you are getting punched in the face because of the plan or because of the trader.

#1 Not having a plan. Preferably written down. The plan should answer the question "What do I do now?" #2 Not having the discipline to follow your plan.

I would see it as the other way around. An astute trader would have risk control in place and either reverse their position or stand aside. The investor on the other hand will bury his head in the sand and spout platitutes such as staying the course and long term investment.

You said your problem is sizing. I assumed you were over betting in bad market, under betting in good market. At least that's what you said.

I'm confused!!!

Why not?

Expect some fireworks is a pretty good forecast. It doesn't matter what the market does you end up being right. Even if it goes up then down you could call it fireworks. Hope you are killing it with your forecasts. Only your account balance knows for sure!!

And if it starts to decline from here?

For someone looking to close the position it just seemed like an arbitrary number. Why not 424 or 426. Why not a trendline or moving average break. It's been making lower highs. How do you exit? When you say anything above 425 is gravy, I take it you don't have an order in the market at 425.

Why 425?

Not my problem. I don't go into a trade without a specific exit plan.

If you don't give away any secrets, what triggered the buy on Thurs? Did you average down?

All today? Why not?

The patterns still work because you can still find them. Nothing works all the time. The trick is to narrow your selection down with other criteria.

Sorry to put you through this, just trying to understand your thinking. To some people fully invested means all of their portfolio, where others mean a full position in a well diversified portfolio which equals maybe 2% of the portfolio. Terms like solid and long term when refering to...

Just that I wouldn't borrow to buy a depreciating asset. I'm not familiar with US tax law so if interest on a car loan is deductible my strategy of making interest deductable won't work.