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Now I'm curious. Why should counter-trend trading be any more predictable than trend trading? If price moves randomly, both methods would be unprofitable, right?

There you go bringing up "random" again. Why? I pointed out that the runs test disproves your claim that price moves randomly, you don't challenge that but you clearly also still don't believe it, because trends are not totally predictable. Here's what I know about trends: they exist in the...

All this proves is that you are not as knowledgeable about trading as you claim. You continually treat price movements as if they are analogous to coin flips ("how many moves ...?"). Coin flips have a fixed magnitude. They go up or down in number by units. Price not only has two directions...

Wrong. The runs test shows that price movement by and large is NONrandom. And you are continually confused on the difference between random and unpredictable. Not everything unpredictable is random. The next unknown digit of pi is unpredictable, but it sure as hell isn't random.

That's what they said about supersonic flight. As to whether or not it would be the Holy Grail, that is debatable.

Although I agree with Mr. Covel that knowing why price moves in a certain direction isn't necessary for a good trend trading strategy, you raise a good point in that a more explicit definition of trend would be enlightening in how best to exploit it. But I doubt we'll be getting any consensus...

For informational purposes only: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=215156

The four principles of trend trading: * Trade with the trend * Let winnings run * Cut losses short * Manage risk You talk about prediction as if it's easy and failproof. In real life, it's a helluva lot easier to detect something that exists (like current trend) than to predict...

:)

"Trend following", "trend riding". Sounds like arguing over to-MAY-to or to-MAH-to. You have a semantics problem. :D BTW if you're trying to <s>follow</s> ride a trend and if trends exist only in the past (:D), isn't that like trying to ride a dead horse? Here's my definition of trend...

HA! I knew that stuff about some rockhead jock being a top stockpicker was a load of bull, even without investigating it. Bwahahahahaha! Anybody else remember the Beardstown Ladies who supposedly were beating the stock market? Then it turns out they were adding in their home equities or some...

So how do you trade?

What about vendors selling blackbox indicators? Selling something that works and disclosing the inner workings aren't the same thing. I look at all the clowns claiming to have reverse engineered the Jurik moving average and I laugh. I can tell from my own research into adaptive smoothers that...

Yeah but there's a huge difference between getting flamed by idiots and trolls who refuse to consider your evidence and getting flamed by reasonable posters because you're running a scam and you refuse to post evidence to back up the extravagant claims. I think sensible viewers can tell the...

Investor's Business Daily, a national financial newspaper founded by Bill O'Neill. I think his CANSLIM system was designed specifically for stocks, making it worthless for futures and forex.

Explain the following to me. http://www.tradingacademy.com/courses/Forex-Trader.aspx "Forex Trader Course Learn professional currency trading skills that can help you succeed in the fast-paced marketplace of Forex trading. In Part 1 (two days), you’ll learn to trade currency pairs...

I use a momentum indicator to tell me which instruments are the best candidates for trading, should I get a trading signal from a second, independent indicator. I pick the two or three instruments with the greatest positive momentum as well as the two or three with the greatest negative...

Actually that Kelly formula is correct for a two-outcome situation so, yes, you are maximizing your potential gain with a 70% bet. But, as was pointed out, the chances of you actually having and knowing with certainty that you have a 75% chance of winning with a 5:1 payout are very slim in the...

That Kelly formula is wrong, as proven here.

I don't know what version of Kelly you're using but here's what mine says: (.75*(5) + .25*(-1))/(.75*(25) + .25*(1)) = .1842 ~ 18% Round down to 10% or 15% for a margin of safety and that's a far cry from 70%+.