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No, he is not, but he is reasonably good at understanding the various market and economic factors. Individuals who mostly suck at everything (like myself) might improve by listening and internalizing the opinions of others. Especially when those people are truly good at what they do. Even if it...

No, it's not the US that's too big to fail, it's the bitcoin that's too small to cause any contagion. How does did bitcoin (as opposed to really thoughtless government policy) cause Venezuelan inflation? Anyway, smaller economies are trying. Even larger ones are, but there is not much they...

Yes, I do edit and don't see anything bad about it. Certainly preferable to appearing illiterate. Yeah, that's true, gotta go home, Asia is mostly closed. What is it, 2pm in Novosibirsk and you are pretending that you are oh so busy at work? :)

I am a 1%er and while I am not happy with Trump, I am happy your money is being transferred to me :P LOL

You can do better, at least in terms of grammar :)

Let's ban all the Russians! They stole the election and now want more!

What other adult topics can we discuss in here?

Seriously, dude, that's your argument for contagion? Okay, let's do some simple math. - The market cap of bitcoin is about $270 yards, taking BTC at the current level. - Let's say we have 5 percent of bitcoin owners that were stupid enough to mortgage their house to buy bitcoin (probably a...

You're not privileged enough. He's a very special member and you have to reach a status of a lower god to access his trading system.

Without being an actual crypto trader, I'd guess that different settlement models might be a part of explanation (CME averages exchanges, while CBOE uses an auction on a single exchange, AFAIK)

Well, all things considered we have seen a few interesting events along the way :) PS. This particular year has been a nightmare. If not for some good dispersion results, I'd be looking for a new job.

Had a glass of wine with a former boss of mine who is managing a multi-billion fund these days. Besides the usual "how's health Sle? glad to see you're not dead yet" banter, the topic of crypto currencies came up. I was primarily listening, he dude is much smarter and/or wiser than myself. Here...

It's obviously conditional on the overall state of economy - if we are in a boring market, the bonds will eventually sell-off. In a flight to quality, all bets are off. That's why if I were doing this trade, I'd do it either by buying puts outright or doing a conditional steepener.

I’ll call you on that. I think it’s very easy to detect it in hindsight but whatever logic you would work out will yield a ton of false positives.

Well, they must also think SPX < 1600 by that time :) Doing it as a conditional steepener is a nice way to express that view - if we 10s do rally back to under 2%, the trade just goes away

Lower taxes => higher deficit => higher borrowing costs

I meant to say that for the same amount of real estate it would be cheaper than buying a single large monitor.

It’s a matter of cost/benefit analysis, that’s where lies the difference between an honest business and a scam (a ripoff or a “predatory business” is a better term, I think). If I lend someone 500 dollars until the next paycheck (zero risk to me) at the rate of 10% per year it’s an honest...

Not true, if you think about it. Speculation is a requirement for efficient risk transfer and price discovery. Look around the globe and you’ll find that all developed capitalist societies have a well developed financial market. However, since speculaton is not transformative, if the underlying...

Short bonds is certainly the first one that comes to mind. If you want to make it cheaper and safer, a bear steepener (eg buy puts on long bond, sell puts on ten year, terminal duration neutral). TBH, I am amazed that the bond market is not going nuts over this.