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"But by holding all of their equity in lira even though a large part of their funding and lending was in dollars, the banking system's capital ratio falls as the lira falls (see the FT). That’s why the central bank is letting the banks use the end June levels of the lira to assess their capital...

http://jasonzweig.com/a-rediscovered-masterpiece-by-benjamin-graham/

Robinhood (another free trade broker) does not give access to non-US clients to the platform, most brokers dont. so its probably not a bad assumption

https://twitter.com/Brad_Setser Great stuff on Turkey from Brad Setser, perhaps there will be some opportunity to buy TUR bello $19

Very interesting this news that Constelation Brands injected $4B in cash into CGC (The old TWMJF). Effectively now CGC has become a Marijuana VC. They are located in Cananda where MJ will be legal in October but they are also close to the US where more and more states are going legal. They also...

Given that the Lira tanked by 1/3 recently the "new" current account deficit will be lower than this. So $15B, even if spread out over a few years, its going to help. It will also signal to other big players that Turkey is an attractive investment, and those dollars could flow in as well

$15B is 25% of the size of the Turkeys current account deficit ($60B). It wont happen all in one year but 1/4 is nothing to sneeze at. Also, the Lira has dropped 40%+ in a short period, that adjustment will further help to close the current account deficit. I would go as far to say that the...

I disagree. Current account deficits are financed through foreign capital inflows (by definition), this is a foreign capital inflow of large size. In the absence of large capital inflows, the domestic currency collapses and there is a run on the central bank reserves (like in Asia in the 90s)...

I belive this matters to reserves. When you have a big current account deficit, you are exposed to foreigners dumping local assets to buy foreign currency. Quatar is doing the opposite move, this takes part of the burden of facilitating that transition (of panicky foreigners) from the Central...

The news is that Quatar is looking to deploy $15B in FDI into Turkey, this will help Turkey build FX reserves and they become pretty much a de-facto IMF for them. the WH also said they will reconsider sanctions if the priest is released Looks like my post came at pretty much the bottom, I wish I...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-15/in-musk-sec-faceoff-investors-should-brace-for-drawn-out-tussle Cliff`s, its going to take 1-2 years for the SEC to finish its investigation and perhaps fine Musk for any wrongdoing he might or might not have done

lol, what exactly?

Also, glancing at the charts it seems that these countries had 2 trades in them. The big technical bounce after the crisis (with returns of 100% from the lows or so) and then stagnation/range until the 2003-2007 EM bull market. If I play this it will be for the first type of trade, the...

The risk is the dictator going ape shit and just going full Chavez, Putin or Castro. So I might have to read up more on him. It seems that he is a power hungry dude but he still lets capitalism work to some extent

In terms of valuation, Turkey is looking quite decent I should have probably started already to buy at $19 but I missed it. Thankfully, glancing at the Asian charts, it seems that a retest and even break of the lows was quite common, so I might take advantage of something like that to buy some TUR

So it seems that the avg loss to foreign holders of stocks in these countries was somewhere around -83%. The currency drop I didnt calculate as peak to through but rather as pre-crisis to `stabilized` value after the shock. Turkey is at -57% for the total loss to foreign investors so far ($45 on...

Malasya South Korea

lol, thats hilarious

Its also telling that they purchased a stake just shy of 5%. Just so they could avoid having to disclose their stake within 10 days of the purchase (as the SEC requires). To me, this suggests that they want to buy a lot more or it would tip off that there was something going on. Otherwise they...

Well, lawyers will have fun with this but from my perspective, more than a LOI (which is a worthless piece of non-binding paper) the Saudis bought $2B worth of stock. They put some money where their mouth was, skin in the game, to me this matters way more than a 2 page word document