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Which day of the week did you short? You got to remember there is the T+2 settlement

PTJ and Dalio talking macro https://finance.yahoo.com/video/greenwich-economic-forum-184135910.html?utm_campaign=JM-305&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=oac

I have two brokers (not IB) that are withholding my dividends from IEF and SHY. I have contacted them explaining that ishares dividends on these securities represent interest are not liable to withholding. here is what they have answered me Centerpoint Securities -Vision Clearing "Good...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-27/huge-bets-that-gold-could-triple-to-4-000-trade-in-new-york?srnd=premium

Hi tks. I was running my risk assets at 60-80% for a number of years but I just feel that strategically it makes sense to bring it down especially because I'm not a primarely macro trader/investor but rather a day/swing trader. If I was doing macro/investing full time, then I could do it like...

I'm also thinking of liquidating all my IEF, 10Y bonds and strips and using only short-term UST bonds. The risk in the next recession is that bonds wont provide a hedge IF the recession triggers a bond crisis (like the UK in the 70's)

A portfolio update My portfolio stress test is now projecting a -14% return, this is down from a -24% from year end 2018. I have cut risk by quite a bit but I'm still long a bunch of stuff, I'm thinking of adding more Brazilian stocks

Some economists wrote articles talking about how, if you correct for inflation, the Real has many other significant lows to come Like the 7.577 all-time low from the FHC presidency in October of 2002. 6.536 from the Lula presidency in Jan 2003. I suspect this move has more to do with the fact...

You got to keep in mind that because of the inflation difference between the USD and BRL, the BRL is destined to go down no matter what. Its not necessarily a signal of anything meaningful

Some folks inside the banks that executed the trade likely leaked this stuff out

Dalio denies having a net negative market bet https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bridgewater-bets-15-billion-market-will-crash-march Regardless, he is certainly not bullish

The news is 3 weeks old but I just found out. One of the new instances where I feel that the SEC did a great job https://www.coindesk.com/reggie-middleton-reaches-9-5-million-sec-settlement-over-ico-fraud

I'm fairly certain IB will not allow you to trade against yourself. This would fall under 'wash trading'

In the 70's. I posted charts and data in this journal about that before. they had a fiscal crisis and had to be bailed out by the IMF

The most likely scenario seems a Trump reelection and a recession some time after it. It would be a bad one as the US budget deficit will be huge, entitlements will start to weight in the budget, people will be more indebted than ever. This will clear the way for a democract to be elected next...

As far as the election goes, its hard to see a socialist winning with the unemployment rate at 3-4%. The billionaire managers are talking about a 'revolution' because of income disparities, wealth gaps, and etc. But I dont think this will play during good times, it will play out when there is a...

If its Warren or Sanders, it would be pretty bad for the GSEs. But I expect Trump and co to do the bulk of what they need to do before the election and shortly after. If they sign a settlement for some of the suits, that cannot be undone by another president, because it would be binding in a...

The whole 'the yield curve has inverted, its time to sell everything' thesis some people seem to use is so ridiculous. The last 2 times the yield curve inverted, stocks went on to rise over 50% and 20% respectively (1998 and 2006) before the market peaked. Furthermore, now the Fed has cut...

"As a result of this dynamic, the prices of financial assets have gone way up and the future expected returns have gone way down while economic growth and inflation remain sluggish. Those big price rises and the resulting low expected returns are not just true for bonds; they are equally true...

Hey I put a small short today on SPY to hedge some of my exposures (and of course, the market went straight up right after it), I also trimmed some BRKB yesterday. But I havent sold it all yet, lots of my stocks are micro stories (like FNMA preferred) that shouldnt be very affected by a small...