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The Fed and Treasury are throwing everything at the problem but the markets continue to panic. I'm going to listen to Howard Marks and some of the commenters here and not buy too much too soon. -35% might not be enough for this market, the total collapse from the peak might even reach -40 or...

I recalculated my dry power and it looks like I still got 40% left. I'm long BRL contracts in order to keep my BRL exposure at 40% (since I live in Brazil). But because the BRL has been falling off a cliff I have been having USD losses in these contracts and they have decreased my total assets...

Today mainly SPY, BA and FNMA. Everyday it changes. The corona names have been great but today I decided to focus on SPY and screwed up a short on CODX. I agree with the systematic rules. I probably need some kind of rule to buy way OTM SPX puts. In Dec/Jan I felt that markets were a little too...

A significant mistake that I did was not going long SPY puts when the Fed popped markets to 3120 on the .50 cut. I do have an aversion to getting involved in options but I'm forcing myself to do it more and more. Had I done that I would have decreased my investing drawdown nicely

I did well on this CPP+Tarp government move. Last time I was able to call shit like this was back in 2008-2011 period where I was primarely a macro trader. In 2012/2013 I started to day trade and swing trade, so I didnt had that much time for macro trading. As a result I took more of a passive...

Deficit is gonna be $2T after the stimulus. Plus QE, plus Fed programs. Buy gold

So I was wrong about the stop level and got choped a bit but I got back in when SPX regained its green level. Index trading is so hard, lots of moves make no sense. It was such an huge obvious buy but yet some idiots were selling everything at the open

CNBC saying fed might do CP facility today. and WAPO reporting Mnuchin is asking for TARP 2 $850b package. Buy stocks and put a stop at 239-240 IMO

The market initially rallied some on the Schumer proposal of $750B of stimulus to deal with coronavirus but then it sold off. I think this bill might turn into a TARP like authorization with bipartisan support. If that happens, that's the buy signal for a long trade on ES. The commercial paper...

Anyone caught Howard Marks on CNBC today? This guy is great. His book was a major reason why I limited my risk to 30-40% in risk assets (instead of 70-100% as some advocated) at the top. He is now saying you got to buy some, that the market might bottom here or not. He just doesnt' know so he...

If the Fed announces this, buy SPY. 2-3 points of risk, reward maybe 15-20 points. The tricky thing is if they announce it overnight. There might still be a trade there but worse risk reward ratio

The Fed announced a lot of stuff but they did not bring back the commercial paper facility. If/when that hits the tape it will be a good time to buy ES for a bounce trade IMO. Lots of co's will tap it and survive during the lockdown period. That's a catalyst I'm looking for to play ES as a trade

I'm not thinking in terms of cash value per share but rather, as they got all the money to whether the storm and for Buffett for make a large buyout that pays off for the next 10 years. Like Burlington Northern in 2008

Well, if that happens I'm going to have a bigger drawdown cuz I will be fully invested by -35%. But I'm not too worried about that Japan scenario, if 2008/2009 didnt cause that, why would this do it? As I said, banks are well capitalized now and the Fed will print a lot. In addition, there is an...

I made a mistake today, I should have taken a short/hedge on ES at the 2700 ramp. It was a decent r/r. 2750 stop with potential drop back to 2500, maybe lower. 50 risk 200+ reward. I need to be faster on this stuff. These prices dont last very long. When the Fed cut SPX jumped to over 3100 but...

China reported 11 new cases for Friday, South Korea 214, HK 1, Macao 0. Looks like the conspiracy theorists will have to expand the list of countries that they are 'certain' that are lying about the data. The asians have laid out the path towards controlling this. Their masks use is completely...

We probably reached a short-term bottom yesterday, I didnt deploy all my dry power but its fine. It never reached the absolutely ridiculous levels of 2350-2400 support. But its possible that the rally will last a while and then tank to new lows. Heck I hope so, I want to be long big time if it does

Eventually they will panic, stock up on hand sanitizer, masks and stay home. In 2-3 months is likely things will be stable and improve a lot in 6-12 months. And stock markets looks forward! If you ever wondered why the market is 'crazy' in ignoring bad news, well, its not crazy. Its just that a...

China flat over the last month. Cases down from 80k to 13k, new cases up +21 yesterday. As much as they are scumbags in terms of human rights, these people work hard. They will stop at nothing in order to advance their country's progress

In 2009 I had no idea how the recession would end, the bank weren't leading, asset values were going down and it was a self-feeding cycle. "If I cant see a way out of this, I will just sit on cash and shorts" or so I thought, and I got burned, big time. Well, because I couldn't see doesn't mean...