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My working hypothesis is that the Bitcoin "bubble" is different from other bubbles because its true fundamental long-term fair value could be quite a bit higher from current prices So, it goes from boom bust cycles but the highs are higher and the lows are lower. With higher and higher market...

The Nikkei went from 1000 in the 60's to 36000 in 89 I'm sure for the guys observing in the early 80's, the whole thing looked ridiculous and there was no way to go higher. They just lacked imagination, there was a way and it happened. I don't want to lack imagination when it comes to BTC...

If the Pizza bitcoin guy had followed a similar plan, he would not have been worth $175 Million dollars (long 100% all the way up) but he might have been worth $10-$20M with limited risk, which is still pretty nice. If someone is too smart for their own good, tries to time things too much, sells...

Yes, that's why I have a trading bucket and a hodl bucket. And the trading bucket is bigger than the hodl bucket (something like 65/35). I will let the trading part go once things get overheated in terms of mainstream people and cocktail parties. Now if it goes to 100K, I sell the trading and my...

Link?

You mean regular financial assets like stocks, bonds, gold ,etc? Can you explain further what you mean?

I doubt it

This is also the reason why I stepped in EARLY in 2018 to buy BTC ($8,500-$9000 avg) rather than to wait for the perfect bottom. In a convexity market I rather be early than to be a dick for a tick. I play it differently from how I would play other markets. It turns out I was 2.5 years early but...

Point is, in a optionality/convexity/exponential market its MUCH easier for SELLING to be a mistake than for buying/holding to be, also selling can be a much BIGGER mistake vs buying/holding. That is because in these markets the RULES are different. That's why New York Dinosaurs like Dalio...

So there was that guy that bought a pizza in 2010 with bitcoin, paying 10,000 BTC for them. That had to be one of the worst financial mistakes ever as that stash would be worth just under $200 MILLION dollars today. Which leads to the question, what can be learned from this? 1-BTC has a lot of...

https://voxeu.org/article/reproduction-numbers-tend-1-and-reason-could-be-behavioural

It's notable that agricultural commodities after being dead money for a long-term finally started to move

Yeah, he is missing something, its a great bet even if all of the things he said are true (which they arent). When Soros sees a bubble he buys first and asks questions later, when Dalio sees a bubble he tries to get educated on twitter lol

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-17/ray-dalio-says-he-might-be-missing-something-about-bitcoin?sref=Hny5JH2p Ray Dalio Says He ‘Might Be Missing Something’ About Bitcoin lol

I think Dalio is right about this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-14/dalio-says-now-is-special-moment-for-markets-as-china-ascends?srnd=premium “Simultaneously there’s the rapid development of the Chinese capital markets, the opening up of the markets to foreign investors, the...

But in any event, I find it pretty difficult for big goverments to shutdown crypto's link to fiat (through bank regulation) because they all agree that tax havens are bad (for them) but there are still plenty of small countries that disagree and they are the havens. If they were to shutdown...

I agree that these things have an effect but my disagreement is that the government can permanently hurt them. People will adapt, there are already exchanges that run in a decentralized fashion. The link to fiat can be reestablished by peer to peer transactions. And BTC went from 5 cents to 20K...

I disagree, do you really expect that a G7 ban would take the BTC price down to $100? If that happened I would buy all the BTC I could, and anyone that understands bitcoin would do the same. In my mind the smart money support would come at lot sooner. The reason is that you can prevent people...

Joel Greenblat on Hedge Fund Market Wizards: And thats without leverage!

lol no way. That 200 short can blow up an account faster than anything out there. Just look at how Einhorn has ruined his career with much lower levels of leverage but following a similar principle. VWs happen, I have been so many stocks have monsters crazy runs that every year that passes my...