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It will be interesting to see how the Dubai news and global sell-off affects libor

Do you have a chart for the Mar11?It appears they are at the lows of the year

Well, take a look at the implied Libor-OIS spread for the dec range. I'm my math is correct(and Martinghoul could help on this), the market is implying a 18bps Libor-OIS spread 3M Libor GE Dec 2010 98.8650 OIS(3M Expected Fed Funds) ZQ Jan 2011 99.1650 ZQ Feb 2011 98.9959 ZQ Mar 2011...

OP, The correlation between daily changes in the S&P500 futures approximately -0.04 over almost all relevant periods. It appears that you have the odds against you

I've been thinking about it but for a different reason. I'm not too worried about short-term movements. I am worried about this sudden correction in financial stocks and bonds that never comes, the longer it takes to get there the more likely it seems that by Dec 2010 there still be stress in...

1)Carry trade. I have yet to see evidence of that, Roubini presents none(other than 'trust me I called the crisis'), banks are not lending. FDIC reports "Quarterly Decline in Loan Balances Is Largest on Record" "Total loan and lease balances declined by $210.4 billion (2.8 percent) during the...

The FOMC minutes apparently make no mention of even a discussion about removing 'extended period' language http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20091104.htm

Interesting thread by IronFist from last year that I missed http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=138491 There seems to exist tons of ET daytrading/TA gurus like that. Steve Nison also sounds a lot like those Kung Fu masters who make wild claims about the old asian stuff

I'm not sure if this theory is true, even though the problem is getting worse at a slower pace lending standards are the highest since the crisis began and the next survey seems likely to still show more net tightening. So if there is an improvement in behavior it almost certainly wont come from...

I would disagree with the 'you may conclude that credit conditions have eased quite a bit'. The fed survey charts are still showing further net tightening, net loosening will come when they drop bellow 0 But if by 'you may conclude that credit conditions have eased quite a bit', you mean...

In any event the FDIC is reporting "Quarterly Decline in Loan Balances Is Largest on Record" "Total loan and lease balances declined by $210.4 billion (2.8 percent) during the quarter. This is the largest percentage decline in loan balances in any quarter since insured institutions began...

Goodluck with grant type investing. Be wrong about the macro direction, say stuff like 'The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery'(contradicting tons of studies) and then hope a speculative boom will bailout your bad investments. If 2010 GDP growth is not 4-5%+ sorry but Grant was wrong, it...

Yet another group of people hurt by fake daytrading 'gurus' http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30/business-finance-investing/message-anyone-here-who-did-daytrading-coaching-wallstreetpro-640774/ The odds someone will give away a real daytrading edge for free seem quite small, so small one...

"My findings suggest that credit conditions play an important role in constraining recovery from recessions associated with financial crises. Industries that rely more on external finance grow more slowly during recoveries from these episodes relative to all other recoveries, suggesting that...

An ET poster sent me this as a message, he is talking about that guy Anekdoten "I basically approached him and some of the members on IRC and chatted about his ET posts. Long story short he or them because its a big group trade nothing like AHG, not even close. They are in the picking...

Tks. You might want to look at this study I posted a while back http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/unemployment_an.html#more It explains that much misunderstood cyclical phillips curve. So I'm on the disinflation/deflation camp for 2010, which is one reason why I dont believe...

But trading is very different, this is a ruthless field where if you are wrong the market will let you know pretty soon. This is why I view biased trading as probably one of the most important things to get rid off, its not easy, specially if you have large positions in the market favoring a...

I have no idea if there is global warming or cooling or global nothing. I have never read a book about it, nor watched Gore's film, I have more important things to do/read. But I find it very interesting that 'scientists' that are supposed to be guided by the scientific method enganging in stuff...

Another possible explanation for these commodity cycles could be interest rates. Low real interest rates lower the cost of holding inventories(and reserves) and act as disincentive for extraction(you can make more just by hoarding reserves and trying to ride the upwave) or buying and storing...

Back to the Exhibit 9 chart Inflation and Deflation cycles. One interesting argument against the 'Its a M2 and easy money cycles instead of commodity cycles' is the fact that during deflation cycles M2 went up 5% on average per year, yet commodity prices fell 1% on average per year in the three...