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I dont preach that money management or 'credit crisis' is more important. I'm debating whether there are edges in TA as typically taught in popular books. As far as my own approach goes, you seem confused, I do fundamental global macro trading. But also ES swing trading based on quantifiable...

Yes. But its funny you mention that, after Beat the Dealer came out over the years I'm told by vegas people it has become harder and harder to count cards and the beat the casino. Markets change and edges get closed out not matter what the TA selling gurus try to tell you

Agreed. The majority of trading books try to give the impression that getting an edge is easy, some of them go as far as saying one can make money with random entries(van tharp). Please, if it were that easy capitalism would be broken, you see that all the time in the business world, a new type...

The 95% failure rate is very easy to understand once you see the most traders dont have an edge. They buy typical trading books that put into their head that if they have discipline and know TA patterns, they will be millionaries Extracting consistent profits from competitive markets in the...

You telling me I should focus in the patterns you are selling in your website and not the ones that populates 95% of the books on candle patterns that hurt people everyday?Please

Yeah, like in the thread where I provided evidence the H&S pattern(as defined in 8 TA books) does not work in practice. then the mod went ahead and edited my OP(I had never seen that before, and I'm here since 2002) to write how he is not giving up in his TA religion because 'you are supposed to...

Here's some data that helps explain why there was a global housing boom It appears the the fall of the soviet union contributed to global deflationary forces(by increasing the amount of workers avaliable in the world trading system), that in turn lead to a fall in interest rates and a...

Front end is soaring, GE calls almost back at their previous highs. Thats why I dont try to time things I like the fundamentals, if I could do that I would just time things all day long. Become a short-term trader and ignore fundamentals totally. Short-term trading is already difficult, but...

Bernanke suggesting 'extend period' is still in next week. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126020573794780253.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection The premature rate hikers dont seem to understand that extended means at least 6 months, but more like 8-10 months or more. 'Considerable'...

If I'm correct the calls are worth 60bps by exp. Hardly 'every last point'

Tell that to soros and druckenmiller who got rich being pigs. Whether the calls are up 100% or 200% doesnt matter, I'd say is far more likely the fed will still be buying mortgages/on hold by mid 2010 rather than raising rates

I'd say it makes sense in theory that there would be periods of prosperity and despair type of boom bust cycles, I'm just not sure they are as predictable as some think. After all if during recovery period the central bank decides to implement bad polcies this would affect the final outcome. I'm...

GS's Jan Hatizius http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-team-jan-20102011-economic-roadmap-key-risks-and-rate-projections "*If our economic forecast is broadly correct, the federal funds rate is likely to stay at 0% in 2010 and, more likely than not, in 2011 as well. First, core...

If the Fed hikes FF while still buying mortgages in the open market I might very well quit trading. I'm serious

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000" It was initially reported as -260K(then revised to -219K). So it turns out that the 'magical' GS prediction was totally off, where is zero hedge now to claim GS gets the report in advance?

By the time the fed hiked rates in 2004 NFP was averaging 174K(including a 338K and 310K print), core CPI was moving up from 1% to almost 2% and the CPI was above 3%. Since this cycle was much worse one could expect a longer lag, I understand the fed balance sheet maybe changes things but the...

You might want to read about randomness

You are like the guy telling Pellegrini to bail out of his CDS. Maybe you forgot calls have limited downside, short-term movements are what dont matter. If I'm right I will cash it, it doesnt matter if my calls go to 1bps at some point. In the other hand trying to TIME movements with a...

Thats not your expectation at all. If it where you would be short instead of just talking about it