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U.S. Probes Bearish Euro Bets http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704486504575098021150940494.html

The folks over MS macro team might want to take a look at this bit from Rosenberg "Look at the employment backdrop too — we are already in the mother of all jobless recoveries. Here we are seven months off the lows in real output and yet nonfarm payrolls are down 1.1 million — this has...

New York Times headline "Vice Chairman of Fed to Retire, Letting Obama Reshape Board" http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/02/business/economy/02fed.html?ref=business This is true, after the appointments Obama will have choosen the entire Fed's board(except Liz duke), 5 votes at the FOMC that...

The bulk of my bets are still on the front end, but I'd say from a cash point of view I'm quite underinvested at this point(this is not to say I'm underexposed to markets, one FF hike and I lose huge). The cash is currently earning nothing at IB, Oanda and some banks. My plan here is to wait for...

Ex-Fed's Mishkin, GS Hatzius and others made this paper http://www.scribd.com/doc/27518455/Financial-Conditions-Indexes-a-Fresh-Look Their conclusions is that financial conditions are still tight and economic growth is likely to be weak in 2010. Mishkin said to CNBC that the shadow banking...

Well there is the argument against long UST http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+March+2010+Bill+Gross+Dont+Care.htm

As I understand Obama will nominate someone and he will have to be approved by congress. With the UR so high we know they will pick a dove

Don Kohn just resigned from the Fed. Effective of June 2010

Everbank

Buffett is in a 3 hour marathon with CNBC

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4691 This says that the fed historically has cared about GDP growth rather than the output gap with regards to the Fed funds rate and their Taylor model says the fed hikes by year end(that chart they show is the argument against them, the last two cycles...

An interesting old article Taleb on Niederhoffer http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

Yeah I remember a senator mumbling something about it, Bunning questioned the legality of it or something, bernanke just addressed that. In any event I'm questioning the credibility of the greenlaw hawk argument that the fed can hike with exceptionaly low out there based on bernankes own...

Once again Bernanke wasnt asked about the SFP, so at this point I still dont know why they did it. Steve Liesman reported some sources told him that the treasury wanted to bring the program back as soon as the debt ceilling was raised, maybe this is true. The question who is choosing the...

wow, the jobless claims miss pretty much seals the deal extended period will be in the next statement

Looking at the evidence here it doesnt seem that the fed can hike while using the 'exceptionaly low for extended period language' 1st - The Greenspan era 'In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.' meant 1% were not...

Bernanke sounded dovish for the most part but the problem was that no congresspeople asked two important questions -What does 'exceptionally low' means, whats his definition -Was Bernanke involved in any way in the UST decision to bring back the SFP and if so why he advised in favor of it...

Bernanke speech live http://www.c-span.org/

Actually nevermind, the MBS purchases will offset the effect in the EFF. As far as the timing of the exit I'm waiting to hear bernanke today to see how he sounds

Looking at the July and August daily effective fed funds, the EFF is likely to go up by some 3-5bps