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Actually I believe I inverted here, you would be short contango and long backwardation

True. There is also tax announcements, if commodities keep going, tax rates will keep going up. All 3 ways to invest have downsides, so thats why I prefer to diversify, perhaps with a bias towards one that is likely to be better than others

If it turns out the commodity futures are really not the way to go and continued interest in ETF products will keep driving roll returns lower, the solution will be simple -Stocks in resource based countries and companies -Currencies correlated to spot prices of major commodities Matter of...

Its called the rule of law, deal with it. It doesnt matter how many animals die, if they were overinsured, they dont deserve to pay a cent. Check the constitution regarding creating laws to affect past events

One thing to note that the rise in libor is producing opportunities to earn some income in cash that earns 0% on IB. By using IB EFPs, essentially buying a stock and hedging by shorting its single stock future one earns libor while being exposed to almost no credit risk(The US exchanges are too...

Well, he was expecting a rebound in the EUR and is not selling his €, he told bloomberg some weeks ago. At the very least anyone's exposure should be 0. I'm going to see how high this bounce goes and then consider shorting it

When a buffett fan goes against his master you know he's got to have a pretty darn strong case, my money is on Einhorn

Been re-reading Invisible Hands, its interesting that almost no one in the book mentions a looming EU crisis, shorting the EUR or PIGS debt and thats the biggest story of 2010 so far. The book was written in Dec 2009 and the interviews were probably made some months leading up to Dec. So the top...

Well, then I dont trust him. I dont care about his stock picks, I have no access to them, if he comes out and says the economy will have a V shaped recovery then real final sales barely eek out gains, he was wrong, even if he doubled his networth He seem to be following a common mistake that...

Gross expects 4-6% returns from stocks and bond markets over the coming years. That seems consistent with the current valuations of US equities(On a Shiller PE), USTs and corporate bonds This doesn't mean one can only make that much unless they lever up. The solution of course is to jump into...

1.4% Final Sales Q1, looks like Jim Grant has been dead wrong so far in his V shaped recovery hopes

When drilling comes back it might be significantly more costly http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64Q2C020100527 The wild card on the Oil Sands trade is how a housing bubble bust would impact canadian banks. The sands companies tend to rely heavily on borrowed money

You seem a little confused mixing up TARP and the Fed monetary measures. The Fed purchased $1.7T in securities, only $1T showed up as reserves, where is the rest?I tell you where it is, its in the M2 money supply. Debt paydown by private agents offset some of that increase, which is why M2 is...

Its not necessary to have credit creation to have inflation, credit turns bank reserves into M1/M2. The Fed can turn its own 'bank reserves' into M1/M2(which will chase goods) by buying assets from the non-bank sector

Lacker is off his meds, again... "REMARK (26/05/10 Reuters): Likely to see low inflation for next couple of months. Will trend back to 1.5-2.0% rest of year. Asset sales before raising rates legitimate option. Decreasingly comfortable with extended period language. VIEW: Lacker marking...

I'm not sure I understand what you mean but it doesnt seem something that I would agree with. The Fed has printed $1T and only part of it has become money supply(all the MBS and USTs holders who were non-banks were credited with M1/M2 components as a result of their sales to the Fed). M2 is...

He might want to look at the post-June FOMC lineup and tell us why would he ever expect the Fed to fail to print enough dollars

Actually you can, the US Treasury has the authority to mail physical checks to US citizens(like they did with the stimulus). The Fed can finance and the UST issue $10T of paper checks and have them delivered to all citizens in a few months, this would almost certainly lead to hyperinflation and...

If Montier is so sure the past will represent the future why doesnt he eat the long commodities in contango/short comm in backwardation free lunch?His net directional exposure will be close to 0(or at the very least it will be random depending where correlations go and which benchmark you are...

I assume its not libor, is it the OIS?