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By Michael S. Derby A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--It is likely to be a long, long time before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, new research from the San Francisco Fed argues. In a note published Monday, bank economist Glenn Rudebusch weighs the task of...

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100614.htm The hussman part on the double dip probabilities is striking. I wasnt aware how close the econometrics were to pointing out a possible recession. If there is a time that past data can surprise and models can fail is the current one but frankly it...

Apparently a breast implant company had to file for chap 11 after they faced lawsuits in order to decrease their liabilities, the speculation is that BP could do the same http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1519594509&play=1 Hard to have confidence one way or the other here

Probably the result of the neck injury. Hewitt beat Federer yesterday, I should have bet on him. I would have lost many times in row over the years but people go insane on big names when they are on a streak, they just dont think they can lose and the odds get ridiculous

A set of data that could show some validity for the secular bull theory would be US capital spending by raw material companies as a % of GDP(looking for a boom bust pattern) but it seems doubtful this data could go back as far as early 1900's or 18xx

Hussman: "Randall Forsyth offered the following nugget in Barron's last week, with which I can't disagree: According to Bespoke Investment Group, there have been 58 "corrections" of 10% or more in the Standard & Poor's 500 since 1927. In 33 cases, the corrections stopped short of the 20% bear...

I dont know much about it. I try to view commodities more in the sense on whether the 'secular bull' theory has validity rather than studying all the individual ones. The only one I have studied more extensively was crude oil, and my conclusions was that I had no idea if supply was about to...

The best news of the day http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575304783846077168.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_sports

I will take Obama decision of doing a prime time speech to demand BP to create an escrow account as further evidence that we are in a new world where hatred for big business and the rich is quite higher than normal

Here are the results of the stress test well ahead of the announcement: The EU banking system is well capitalized

"Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn announced on Friday that, at the request of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, he plans to remain on the Board until a new Governor is appointed but to leave no later than September 1. He had announced in March that he intended to resign at the expiration of...

Mcculey says ECB needs to give up more independence to fiscal authorities http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2010/McCulley+June+Some+Unpleasant+Keynesian-Minsky+Logic.htm Also suggests ECB sterilization is phony given that term deposits and reserves are 'close...

They might make it permanent, otherwise lots of funds could be moving on the day it expires, there could be some disruptions, bank liquidity problems, etc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVBlfJCI.NLQ&pos=8 9 years after

Roubini calls for 0% rates, more QE and lower EUR http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atvIW7yeN.NA&pos=4 I suspect the ECB will agree with this by 2030

I'm trying to find a more broad sample of this chart here http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-exchange-rate-during-systemic-banking-crises-2010-6

"POSITION: Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank AGE: 65 STANCE: Unknown REMARK (10/06/10): "Bond markets were distorted, programme corrected distortions in specific markets" VIEW: Nowotny eager to define the purpose of the ECB's bond purchase scheme which for all intents and...

Maybe one is european and the other american style

Trichet Refuses to Give Further Details on Asset Purchases http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=avd5isoM8.08 I suspect he is not buying bunds :p

This might have legs, I cut back on EUR shorts