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I also dont expect any US bond crash soon, if anything they will probably rally some more as stocks fall. I'm just amazed that a number of paid professionals seems to be arguing that US sovereign risks arent going up given all the stuff that is going on, seems like they think this time is different

The rates are low camp seems to be attached to that measure of risk, and only that one. Ignoring others like -Banking crisis historically have lead to sovereign debt crisis -Deficits as a % of GDP -Rising public debt as a % of GDP -Contagion. They somehow imply that the EU crisis has lead...

Am I the only one who finds utterly amazing that people all of the sudden joined the "US is fine" because rates are low?Specially when that argument is put forward by economists Yet they are the same people who will talk about 'contagion', a completly different measure of risk to a sovereign...

No they are not, look at the studies, S&P500 futures are negatively correlated on a daily basis. Stocks are mean reverting and thats not an opinion, its what the numbers says

He also said nonsense like higher prices are more likely to be followed by higher prices completly ignoring the historical evidence

Boy, doesnt that say a lot

Even Meredith Whitney is afraid to call for a double dip in the economy. Says 'its a better than 1% chance' yet she is quite confident of a double dip in housing. I'd say if housing continues to tank a double dip recession becomes the a likely outcome. Simply because the Hussman model doesnt...

They need to offer choice for you to choose the layout

Also helps to run a website to sell 'strategies' and 'courses' that teaches patterns with no empirical proof that they work other than 'trust me, it makes me money'

Ritholtz is a tool. If things depended on him the Fed would have 5.25% rates through 2008 while he cried about commodity prices The guy is the typical blogger who will say anything that will please his audience, and that usually means bashing politicians. I repeat, that op-ed could have been...

Funny you say that, given that the current top expert on sovereign debt crisis Ken Rogoff agrees with no more fiscal stimulus. Thats because he understand Japan is the exception not the rule. All this talk about a 'balance sheet' recession guarantees the sovereign can borrow is nonsense, Greece...

Looks like IB is offering US muni bonds http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/tws/usersguidebook/getstarted/trade_corporate_treasury_and_muni_bonds.htm

I could be wrong but I remember reading that XOM was one of the few that were able to replace their reserves to keep up with output

Buffett was levered long(through a insurance company) on a asset that rises about 10% a year during a bull market in the right country. We never hear about the Argentina buffett, or the Iceland buffett. I'm not to take anything away from his skills, hes a great stock picker, but thats only part...

Interesting piece by Greenspan http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704198004575310962247772540.html "In the past decade the U.S. has been unable to cut any federal spending programs of significance." Which is why a new fiscal stimulus is dangerous(unless its all temporary tax...

The hussman 4 step recession model says the economy is almost there in terms of historical 100% recession prediction. Now lets say that the model has been running hot and its probabilities of being right arent 100%, say its 75%, that would be the chance of a double dip, yet the model is not...

BP has reincorporated in the Washington state. Chairman Pelosi didnt think the dividend was the correct financial decision going forward

BP not just cut the dividend and bended over to the WH accepting the fund, now they will raise $10b in debt(at quite high interest rates). I wouldn't be surprised if Whitney Tilson has unloaded or at least trimmed his position there

Ask SAC capital

Gross is buying BP bonds. This might be a better play, due the political pressure to not allow BP to get rid of liabilities through BK and the company is worth quite a bit alive and probably can pay everyone if they money will come out of cashflows. So one could say Obama is siding with the debt...