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They talk about 'a very large convexity-led sell-off in rates markets.' I dont understand how that is supposed to affect the front end, isnt that a 10y & 30y story? Furthermore if there is a double dip, in theory we would be in one of the scenarios he discarded, 'where the Fed is expected to...

The Fed stays at 0% forever trade seems to be becoming the widespread view. The Mar 2011 contract is pricing in 46%, I dont necessarily think this is correctly priced by its not as juicy as back when Dec 2010 was pricing in 75%. Furthermore just about every analyst is now at Q1/Q2 2011 So now...

VN on being wrong http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/thewrongstuff/archive/2010/06/21/hoodoos-hedge-funds-and-alibis-victor-niederhoffer-on-being-wrong.aspx

Black Swan?Mahut vs Isner 59/59 on the fifth set in Wimbledon, 10hr match, crazy

Shit "Dear Trader, Thank you for your inquiry. Interactive Brokers is still working with the Brazilian Regulators for approval to open up access to the Bovespa Exchange. The time table has been pushed out to another 6 to 8 months. If you need additional assistance please let me know...

Heres an article drawing a parallel between the US and Japan http://www.northerntrust.com/pws/jsp/display2.jsp?XML=pages/nt/0601/1138283678319_6.xml&TYPE=interior&er=dgcDetail&c=primary/resource/1006/1277240774967_734.xml I believe it has a flaw though. They seem to think the bank lending...

I dont understand what Soros is saying with regards to Germany. He seems to agree with the budget deficit cuts "What would be the right policy for Germany to pursue? It cannot be expected to underwrite other countries' deficits indefinitely. So some tightening of fiscal policies is...

As I understand you can sell your shares and sue. You would be suing for a period of time that you where a shareholder and had a decline in the value of your stock

Bought some SPY way OTM puts for Mar 11, around 700 SPX level. Betting on some kind of fat tail here

I suppose the difference between 2007 and now is that mortgage equity withdraws are much tighter in terms of bank standards so there is less to be taken off consumer spending. Still, if prices drop 10% that cant have a zero impact of gdp growth, it gotta hurt at least a little bit

A collection of Buffetts Forbes pieces http://rghost.net/1947807?r=1255

Seems that a ton of people called for a US recession back in 2007 based on the housing bust. Now it looks like housing is going down again, how come so few are in the double dip camp?The bust will be smaller for sure, but real final sales are also weaker right now(1.5% avg or something)...

I was suspecting the same thing with Fisher 2008 dissents

Hoenig probably dissents again, its been a while since he has been operating under his full faculties, so he might just flat out call for a hike today. If the fed implements QEII, which I expect down the line, he might flat out start physically harassing other members :p

So in theory you could go short commodities in contango and long commodities in backwardation and capture this 'no risk' premium while keeping your net commodity exposure close to 0. Now maybe this is some kind of ETF/ speculation effect that distorts prices above their likely future price...

Lets face it, what would be a baseball equivalent to this?a guy hitting .500/.600 or something?My money is on he was lying, if his results were audited(I'm not sure they were) he had a company help him commit fraud

He is either the luckiest trader of all time or the most fraudlent

Shorted more homebuilders, EUR and covered HAL puts, will wait for a new spike in volatility to short one of the puts

Yes but the bonds would crash. It seems that some people are taking comfort in the fact that Japan was able to make it so far, I'm not so optimistic because I know that this Fed will explode QE to astronomical levels if necessary to create inflation and at some point they will get it, and...

Guys, think about it for a second, why arent you all shorting UNG if its guaranteed that contango will lose you money?Sorry, no free lunch here, what happened in the past could change Either contango or backwardation had to had a historical losing record, turns out that it was contango, keyword...