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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    More Bullard http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1555445268&play=1 http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1555445256&play=1 http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1555517175&play=1
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Bullard explains his position http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1555443840&play=1 Apparently he is talking about from a point of view of multiple equilibrium where the same policy could create 2 outcomes
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    I dont think they did everything, if the BOJ owned all outstanding government debt and the entire Nikkei, I can guarantee you, they would have inflation!
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    But didnt the BOJ did QE with government debt as well?
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    But if the Fed credibly said 'we will keep rates a 0% for 15 years', dont you think the opposite would happen?Zero financing for government borrowing for a long-time, essentially monetization of the risk premium
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    "Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the first."(The 1.1 figure was revised from 0.8) " The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    But they also publish their forecast at the same time which shows different expectations, plus there are all the speeches where they try to sound like everything is ok
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    Funds Withdrawal Question

    At IB an ACH is quite a bit cheaper than a wire or check
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Bullard says extended period might boost deflationary outcomes. I cant see how this is correct, why cant governments promise 0% for 10 years so they can finance government debt on the cheap for a long-time?Low rates for longer is just a different method for monetization of debt, therefore I...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    James Bullard does some stand-up comedy "REMARK (29/07/10, RTRS): Extended period increases risk of Japan style deflationary trap as could cause drop in inflation and inflation expectations. Should consider buying more Treasuries. Does not plan to dissent against extended period. VIEW...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Actually, its more like 9 months. The way the Fed and Bernanke has been speaking(debating more stimulus) the probability the fed will hike in the next 6 months is as close to 0% as it gets. The market is quite aware of this
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Trimmed down PPD and XHB shorts(although XHB is still mostly on). At this point I have some smallish stock plays, SPY puts but currently the only real bet is on Dec 2011 Fed Futures. Moodys news that some large US banks will be downgraded is helpful to that bet, a possible way I could be...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Consensus range for tomorrow GDP report is '1.0 % to 3.4 %' Quite wide. I'm looking for to see "real final sales + the price index"(nominal gdp ex-inventory changes), thats what will really drive earnings going forward, not the productivity boom and corporate fat cutting that is completely...
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    Second Depression Averted Due to Bailouts: Study

    Nothing prevents the private sector from delevering during a period of low growth in the next several years
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    From Beige Book "Banking and Finance Reports on banking conditions were largely mixed across the Districts. Banking activity in Richmond and loan demand in Kansas City increased modestly. Overall loan demand was reported as soft or weak in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas, while total...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    "Manufacturing expanded in most regions. However, half of them—New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta and Richmond—reported that activity had "slowed" or "leveled off." Steel production declined in both Chicago and Cleveland." Here comes the manufacturing recession
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    Dennis Gartman on holding on to a losing thesis...

    The problem is that the way gartman talks he tends to be bullish or bearish for a multitude of 'fundamental' factors, he tends to give the impression that he did a lot of research. Yet when the price changes its like as if all that research was junk. He should go on TV and only say 'I'm long...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Barton Biggs is an ardent follower of the quote he invented 'when the market fluctuates I change my mind, what do you do sir?'
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Martin did the ECB just tighten their collateral requirements starting in Jan 1 2011?
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    Federal Reserve: fact or conspiracy?

    Well, its hard to debate someone who doesnt mean what he says
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