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I'd say the best point to buy was in Jan 2010 after the Dec 2009 front end plunge. During the EU crisis there was a real chance libor wouldn't come back or would keep going up. In fact I'm still staying away from them because the world might look very different if a couple sovereigns go down and...

This is an important point because if there is indeed a large stock of homes that need to be foreclosed then there is a large decline in M2 that has not happened. When that happens the Fed will be forced into more asset buying and likely not move the Fed funds rate I need to find some figures...

Matter of fact if you think about it default(as far as mortgages go) actually puts more pressure on M2(in the short-run) than paying the debt. That is because paying it monthly gradually decreases M2 and raises bank reserves while in a default, that total decline in M2 will be less(perhaps half...

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/18/number-of-the-week-defaults-account-for-most-of-pared-down-debt/ After reading this I just realized that foreclosures decrease the M2 money supply. People can default to avoid paying the debt(in theory this would help the M2 to not decline) but when...

I believe the people who are excited about QE, dumping dollars and buying gold are going to be quite disappointed next week. The Fed wont feed them candy in my view, unless the CPI figures are just terrible

dont know, got it from the Felix Salmon blog

Unlike in previous forays, the Bank of Japan will not drain the money flowing into the economy as a result of the yen selling, sources familiar with the matter said. That indicated the central bank plans to use the sold yen as a monetary tool to boost liquidity and support the economy...

Gross dumps USTs, thinks they are too high http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.8LqP9Rv2M8&pos=7

The idea that currency interventions dont work is wrong in my view(In particular for weaking a currency). Its a matter of how committed the central bank is, a fixed exchange rate is nothing more than permanent intervention. If the BOJ wanted JPY at 95 they could do it within hours, they would...

Yeah, this assumes they wont be hurt much by a housing decline that could lead to some kind of recession

Buffett doesnt see double dip, says his businesses are doing well http://www.cnbc.com/id/39159230 I'm not sure that means much, he owns the best companies they are supposed to perform better in a relative basis. Furthermore current business performance is a hardly a leading indicator, also...

55% of my old position size. I might actually go to 120% by buying additional contracts if the correction goes low enough(mid 30's)

The correction in the front end came, so now I'm on the watch to go back to a full 100% long on the fed futures(currently I'm at about 55%) but I will wait a few more days because this decline might have some legs

Bullard, 50% chance Fed eases further, 'hyper extended' a possibility http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1587918155&play=1

A variation of this deceptive tatic might be when the person is accused of some wrong doing, they usually follow up with extreme words like 'this is outrageous' with an overly exaggerated emotional state trying to 'project' some image that they are innocent, this is usually followed by threats...

Lewis on Greece http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=all Gov revenues seem to be 28% of GDP, so I'd say Lewis exaggerates the effects of tax cheating plays a role there

'Deceptive bosses, it transpires, tend to make more references to general knowledge (“as you know…”)' This is a trick routinely used by Bernanke

How to tell if CEOs are lying http://www.economist.com/node/16847818 "They also use fewer “non-extreme positive emotion words”. That is, instead of describing something as “good”, they call it “fantastic”. The aim is to “sound more persuasive” while talking horsefeathers."...

Fed tests term deposits, interest rate is higher than IOR http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aW.l4O4wcuts If they were to use this in a large scale I cant see how the fed funds rate wouldn't go up(whether they want it or not), given that the discount rate(the so called...

Lockhardt supports QE if economy worsens " (03/09/10 DJ): Would consider balance sheet expansion if economy worsens. Expects better GDP growth later this year. VIEW : It seems like the data has to surprise clearly on the downside to push the Fed into further QE. Today's data means...