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This is all a big reason why on my journals I spend more time rambling about philosophical concepts of trading and investing, big picture ideas, then making market calls or putting price targets out like the gurus. I rather learn and improve my decision making, my risk management, my chances of...

So my philosophy is, dont listen to gurus, dont drink the kool-aid. Have some sort of model on what the top will look like and stick to it. Also, take profits along the way. You probably should be taking more profits than I do, because you have a record of not seeing tops, whereas my record is...

Yes. But I dont drink a lot of the kool-aid that is out there. I have been trading and investing for a long-time and I noticed that people are not rational at bottoms and at tops, and gurus are so bad but it doesnt seem that way because they talk so well. I recall David Rosenberg talking about...

I manage by having the % in my portfolio in this sector that I deem appropriate given the risk-reward of the current situation. For me, personally, that %, isn't and will never be 100%. Even 50% seems a little much to me but it could make sense at the depths of a bear market and if the person...

The difference in my investing to yours is that you optimize your strategy to the base case scenario. I try to maximize to the base case while still making it robust to non-base case scenarios. That means I sacrifice profits in the base case to insure against less likely scenarios, while you...

Did Willy Woo predict the recent correction? Also, when the top comes, what's to prevent BTC from tanking 50% before Willy Woo comes out and explains what happened? I'm seeing him all over the place to explain what happened, not so much in terms of his showing that he predicted it. I dont see...

I do believe crypto works at the fundamental level. I have a background in programming, I have written code in C++, Visual Basic, Delphi, Java and other languagues. What I dont believe is that this works at the market price levels. I mean, it can work, but it can also not work. I wouldn't...

Interest rates will have some effect but that will be smaller as compared to a 10% NGDP growth. Thats what I think Pal is missing. He is not looking WHY rates rose. Scott Sumner talks about that a lot, you cant reason from an interest rate change (I think Friedman popularized this idea back in...

I think this stuff can help, but at the end of the day if you think about that this is scientifically, there is not very strong evidence that it works. Why do we think a Moderna vaccine works? Because we have several double blind placebo controlled trials saying that it works, so we can make...

The only way cryptos can get to one century of utilization as a store of value if it goes through 11 years first. And that what is going on. The only way to get ingrained into cultures is for it to start to get ingrained into cultures. You cant start at the end

In the US, interest expense is about 5% of federal spending. It can go up quite a bit and still be fine. Of course, the rich will be taxed more but specially big corporations. Biden is already moving in that direction. I wouldn't want to own the Nasdaq during Biden. I dont think the US is at the...

Why no significant sale in the last 2 bear markets then?

As far as money printing goes, in one hand I can see why that drives lot of people into bitcoin and crypto. But I have studied monetary policy quite a bit in the past. I know full well that most people sitting in the Fed right now idolitize people like Milton Friedman, and Paul Volcker. They...

Sort of, not to literally $0 but down so much, you might as well call it a wipe out for longs. Like in the event of a G-7 ban, which would change the adoption curve in a huge way. Yes, there will be TIME to sell but I think you underestimate the degree of discipline and emotional fortitude it...

I always think in terms of portfolio construction, which I have studied a lot on over the years (and a lot of that work is in my Global Macro journal). I want to maximize risk-adjusted returns, not returns. Buffett is a return maximalist guy, but that only works for certain people and you need...

Cool, what is your exit strategy for BSC and CAKE?

But what's to prevent the futures premium from going to unreal numbers temporarily? I think you are assuming the link between spot and futures will hold, under market distress it might not. Heck in regulated markets (like in 1987 US stock crash) the S&P500 futures was completely detached from...

DeFi has been sucking over the last few months, so I consider they relatively cheap. Certaintly over Exchange and NFT tokens. So I took advantage of that to buy more of the ones that I like and that have good numbers on DeFi pulse I added to: Compound, AAVE, Uniswap, CRV, Sushi, also some SNX...

What scares me about this trade is that the futures can pretty much trade at any price. Kraken has had some flash crashes where BTC, ETH, DOT and other coins have collapse an huge amount. For a futures arb'er this would have been great if they had small bid orders out. But there is nothing to...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-16/Diversification-is-key-as-world-faces-currency-debasement-threat-Ray-Dalio.html "Dalio said that Bitcoin should represent about 20% of an investment portfolio." Soon Dalio will be talking about Lambos