These are great questions. Having said that, absent genuine (adverse) news, the odds of the 2nd day gap going unfilled -- on opex, no less -- are pretty low.
given the timing of the Fed's CPI adjustment (at 11:30, just as the market was on the edge of doom), I suspect the minutes will be crafted for soothing effect.
never bet against the fed
i agree ... nor do i place too much faith in (downside, at least) gaps. how many unfilled downside gaps have we collected since last march?
perhaps they will be filled ... sometime in the second term of the (malia) obama presidency ...