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With 72% reporting, 47% has Peltola as their first choice. That means that if these numbers hold, she doesn't need much to get over the hump. In the special election a significant amount of Begich voters (the more moderate candidate over Palin) put Peltola as a second choice. I would be very...

What about online voting with a video check? Everybody gets a voter ID and can see how they voted. They will be asked to check before submitting.

Well…looking at the remaining map, CNN says there’s 16 contests remaining. I think the GOP will likely win about 6 of them. I have to make them favorites in the 4 incumbent seats in CA. There’s another one in CA they are leading. Unfortunately, Bobo is the only Republican in a non-CA district...

What’s going on with FOX News is that they and all other Murdoch outlets along with the establishment are in a coordinated attack to take down the dear leader. I don’t know if it will be successful, but it’s clear that they have no choice.

My guess is more like 51-48 given where the outstanding ballots are (lots in CA). I think it’s more of a mass rejection of MAGA in swing districts. Republicans who weren’t blowing Trump (aka the RINOs to Trump’s base) did much better than those who did. Even for regular Republicans, abortion is...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrat-katie-hobbs-defeats-maga-favorite-kari-lake-high-stakes-race-rcna55172 Kari Lake is now a puddle.

For all the talk about gerrymandered GOP House districts, Republicans are actually underperforming the popular vote: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022 Their 4.9% lead in the popular vote would project a 228-207 lead if things were evenly distributed.

The majority of people are making less than last year in terms of real salaries/wages. Unemployment was already pretty low when Biden took over. A lot of jobs that came back were basically the ones lost in the pandemic and are low paying. It’s not like we’ve entered a new age of prosperity...

CA's "election season" is a joke to the rest of the country and should be an embarrassment to the residents of the state. It's not a partisan thing. There are plenty of blue states that count much faster.

He forgot the one where he was going to kill somebody until he say the "honk if you love Jesus" bumper sticker. That's my favorite.

He said he's always been pro-choice and socially liberal, but supported candidates in the past who weren't (like Kasich who was running against Trump). Even if he was pro-life, it's pretty irrelevant to the mayoral job. Offering advice to Trump on economic matters shouldn't disqualify him...

Obama had a lot of enthusiasm. Hell, Hillary had even more enthusiasm than him (at least with women).

Likeable like a grandpa maybe. Problem is, people generally don't want their grandpa to be POTUS. The constant telling everybody the economy is great isn't helping either. He looks completely out of touch.

Not going to call myself a social butterfly, but I have yet to meet an enthusiastic Biden supporter.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_United_States_Senate_elections_retirements_map.svg 2024 is a very bad map for Democrats. Barring the GOP nominating another pedophile, their best chances to flip are TX (Cruz) and FL (Scott). Scott would be almost impossible the way FL is trending...

They just called OR-6 for the GOP so they're only 6 seats away from the majority. Then they can spend the next 2 years focusing on by far the #1 issue Americans care about according to exit polls: Hunter Biden.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election Lake gained ground today, but not enough. Going to need about 58% of the vote remaining which looks unlikely.

I believe the increase in mail-in voting is a major factor. It has led to a lot more people voting that otherwise wouldn't have.

He was endorsed by Democratic celebrities that never back Republicans, including Snoop and Katy Perry. Clearly isn’t a Trumper. I guess ever being tied to the GOP brand is too toxic in LA.

The three most likely candidates for the Democrats are: Biden, Harris, and Newsom I think DeSantis beats all of them.