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  1. M

    waterfall decline underway?

    Looking for 95-100 on EEM as bottom.
  2. M

    Black Week (Mar 5 - 9)

    Just a reminder to all, you don't have to trade this environment if you don't feel comfortable with your analysis or don't know why things are happening. You can also reduce your size substantially if it feels like you mights be gambling more that trading. Use defined risk, hedge an index short...
  3. M

    Novastar Law Suit

    Thanks surf, and I agree nothing wrong with trading on rumor from credible source with appropriate size. I think with these sub prime lenders left it all has to do with what loans they are carrying and have default liability for. Also if they are hedged with CDS at a good price. My guess is...
  4. M

    waterfall decline underway?

    Going out loadedto the gills with EEM puts. Have a great weekend all.
  5. M

    waterfall decline underway?

    You can add the spread between corporate's and treasuries finally starting to widen today, and not just the junk either.
  6. M

    waterfall decline underway?

    If we close here or lower (on US indices) and the EEM is anywhere near 107-108 it is a slam dunk short for Monday as the EMs are going open down big Sunday.
  7. M

    waterfall decline underway?

    Amazing that the dip buying is still so strong, to me that says that there is no real fear yet and there is more downside to come. My guess is that the redemptions at 3PM are going to be hefty and we will see a significant move down in to close. Could be fugly!
  8. M

    Novastar Law Suit

    Were you looking for a bounce when you 1st were interested in NFI or was it something more, or maybe part of a strategy (hedge against a YM short)? I am holding GM and CFC short still on the assumption that the whole subprime fiasco has yet to really matter but don't like that the bid for them...
  9. M

    Novastar Law Suit

    Hope you get some of your money back surf.
  10. M

    Why do we have to crash???

    Fed added $9Bln in temp reserves to the system yesterday, wonder what it will take today.
  11. M

    Why do we have to crash???

    What makes a crash more likely than a slow grind is that what took the market up was incremental buying and incremental adding of liquidity through leverage. While there certainly was a lot of liquidity being pumped in to the system I think that at least for the last several months liquidity...
  12. M

    Timing Journal

    Closing out 2/3 yen position here @8572 +311
  13. M

    Shocking insider trading scandal today

    Bastards cost us all money and anything that threatens the integrity of the markets is bad for traders and honest market participants and ultimately the US economy. Wonder if they get to keep the house in the hamptons, probably. Until the SEC stops wiping WS'a collective arse and sentencing for...
  14. M

    Cfc

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAfTrKZokGRk&refer=home March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said payments were late on almost 20 percent of the subprime loans it manages for clients. Delinquencies of 30 days or more on...
  15. M

    Usdjpy

    This trade has made my year.
  16. M

    Cfc

    Finally starting to crack
  17. M

    Cfc

    :D The CEO has sold some $78 million since Nov! CFC is like the andrea gail in the perfect storm of housing drop off, loan repricing, and lending standards tightening. Meaning, fewer, smaller, much less profitable underwritings. Looks like another potential New scenario within 1-2 quarters...
  18. M

    Cfc

    Rats jumping from sinking ship? http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/25191.htm
  19. M

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    Is it just me or is this bounce weak weak weak...more down side action to come Thursday and especially Friday. Props to austinp and buylo for sticking to their guns.
  20. M

    Cfc

    This has to be one of the more amusing upgrades I have ever come across. Countrywide Financial (CFC) Ups from 1 STAR (strong sell) to 2 STARS (sell) Analyst: Stuart Plesser Countrywide's shares have fallen over 10% year-to-date, in our view leaving only modest downside...
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